July 22, 2015
Potential Tropical System in Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, Likely to Bring Heavy Rain
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The disorganized area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms [associated with the front] might stay over warm water long enough for weak tropical development."
However, quick development in this area through the weekend seems unlikely.
Conditions may become more favorable for tropical development during the last week of July.
"We suspect that strong winds aloft over the region on the Atlantic side will diminish next week, which could be enough to spur on development," Kottlowski said. "Tropical development on the Gulf side could follow if the disruptive winds diminish in that region."
Initial movement of a system on the Atlantic side would tend to be out to sea, due to steering winds. However, these winds could change over time. Movement of any system that develops in the Gulf of Mexico would tend to drift westward.
Regardless of tropical depression or storm formation, the pattern will deliver drenching and locally gusty thunderstorms to part of the Southeastern United States coast.
The frequent downpours are expected to settle over Florida this weekend into the last days of July.
While Florida and its vicinity typically receive heavy storms this time of the year, the storms could be very slow-moving and unload enough rain to cause flooding problems, travel delays and disruptions to outdoor activities.
The storms forecast to frequent Florida next week will be the result of the stalled front nearby and a pocket of cool air aloft. The setup will make the atmosphere very unstable over the state.
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
Posted by AG-ER Team at 7/22/2015