AccuWeather.com Hurricane
Center meteorologists are monitoring a large area of showers and thunderstorms
entering the northeast Caribbean this weekend. This is the same feature that
cruised the Central Atlantic much of this past week as a tropical wave. While
Patty, centered east of the Bahamas Friday, will be on the way out soon due to
disruptive high-level winds, a feature near the Lesser Antilles may not stop at
a tropical depression or storm. According to Tropical Weather Expert
Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, "Wind shear was limiting the development of
the system during the second half of this week, but that may gradually change
over the weekend into early next week."
Wind shear is essentially
strong, unidirectional winds high in the atmosphere that disrupt the vertical
structure of a tropical system. In the tropics, these winds can totally prevent
a system from developing, or bring the demise of a well-developed system. "The
low level swirl was separated from the showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon, but there could be a new center forming anywhere in the large
disturbance," Kottlowski said. The feature will drift toward the
north-northwest through the weekend and will bring drenching showers, locally
gusty thunderstorms and rough seas over the Leewards and Virgin Islands, to
perhaps as far west as Puerto Rico.
While much of this area
needs rain, too much may fall too quickly leading to localized flash flooding. "Wind
shear may weaken enough to allow the system to not only become Tropical
Depression 17, but perhaps Tropical Storm Rafael over the weekend,"
Kottlowski stated. People over Leewards, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico should
be prepared for possible tropical storm conditions later Saturday into Monday
as a result. Steering winds next week could guide the system close to Bermuda
during the middle of next week "There is a chance the system could become
the Atlantic's ninth hurricane of the 2012 season, prior to reaching the waters
of Bermuda and encountering increasing wind shear all over again,"
Kottlowski added.
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist –
AccuWeather.com
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