October 9, 2012
A Brief Window for Tropical Development Opens
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a disturbance near the Bahamas for a brief window of potential tropical development. A weak area of low pressure has developed at the surface, according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait. However, thunderstorms are all located on the east side due to high wind shear that has been preventing the disturbance from developing into an organized tropical system thus far.
The low will not likely develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm until thunderstorms wrap around the center of the low and help it to gain additional strength. There is a brief window over the next 24-36 hours, where wind shear may relax just enough for this to happen. "There is some chance the low level circulation center could wrap up similar to what we just observed with Oscar," AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. The next name on the list for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Patty.
Any tropical development will have to occur quickly by Tuesday evening before wind shear is expected to become even stronger. "Beyond that, we expect the southwest shear to be even stronger, which will create too much of a vertically tilted storm system," Kottlowski added. The Bahamas, Bermuda and shipping interests should keep a close eye on this disturbance. With a trough over the eastern U.S., the system would likely get steered away from the U.S.
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist – AccuWeather.com
Posted by AG-ER Team at 10/09/2012