Agricultural Emergency Report

Hurricane Danny to Threaten Leeward Islands

8/21/2015 5:45:59 AM

Hurricane Danny continues to move west-northwestward across the central Atlantic at a forward speed of around 10 mph. The center of Danny is now just under 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands and the maximum sustained winds of the Category 1 storm are now up to 85 mph. Further strengthening is possible over the next 12-24 hours as Danny continues to move over very warm ocean waters and through a zone of low wind shear.

Satellite imagery shows Danny is fairly well organized as of Friday morning with thunderstorms wrapped about its center in a symmetrical manner and an eye continues to be visible on infrared satellite imagery as well. Although strengthening is possible over the next 12-24 hours, beyond this time frame, Danny will begin to weaken as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean and the Leeward Islands as it moves into a zone of higher wind shear and increasingly drier air.

Despite this projected weakening, Danny will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to the Leeward Islands Sunday night into Monday and then to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by next Tuesday. Although there will be locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds that could cause power outages and some flash flooding, at the same time, the rain will also be welcome as much of the Caribbean is in the midst of a severe drought.

Danny will approach Hispaniola by the middle of next week as a weak tropical storm or tropical depression. Beyond this, the storm may dissipate as the combination of dry air, high wind shear and interaction with landmasses take its toll on the storm.

Aside from Hurricane Danny, we are also monitoring a non-tropical low currently located to the south-southwest of Bermuda. Although satellite imagery currently shows that showers and thunderstorms associated with this low are rather disorganized, the non-tropical low is over warm waters and could gain tropical or at least partially tropical characteristics over the next several days as it moves northward.

We are also watching a tropical wave that has just emerged off the west coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. There are some poorly organized showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave right now, but there is opportunity for this tropical wave to gradually develop over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Finally, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Africa will emerge off the west coast of Africa as a tropical wave in the next couple of days. Gradual development of this wave will be possible by the middle of next week as it moves westward across the far eastern Atlantic.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski