Tropical Weather Update

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center - Miami, FL
8:00 pm EDT Thursday, June 21, 2012

For the North Atlantic Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula is producing an extensive area of cloudiness showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean sea...and also over the Yucatan peninsula...western and central Cuba southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas.

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system is gradually becoming better defined and surface pressures are slowly falling across the area.

Upper-level winds are also improving and are forecast to become more conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next day or so.

This system has a high chance 70% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northward into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this large disturbance through the weekend.

Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula western Cuba and southern Florida through Saturday.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon if necessary.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.