A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE 70% OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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