September 7, 2012

Leslie's Projected Path

After Hurricane Leslie passes across Bermuda this weekend, the system will move quickly into Atlantic Canada waters early next week. Leslie will generate rough surf and increase the number and strength of rip currents along much of the eastern coast of the United States through the weekend. Leslie has been moving very slowly, was located about 400 miles south-southeast of Bermuda Friday morning, but that will soon change.
According to Dan Kottlowski, head of the Hurricane Center, "We are confident Leslie will pick up forward speed moving between 20 and 30 mph at the latitude of New England to Newfoundland." Leslie strengthened to a hurricane Wednesday afternoon, but continued to battle wind shear Thursday into Friday. While Leslie is forecast to pass east of Bermuda Sunday, it will do so as a hurricane and may still not clear the coast of Atlantic Canada.
The exact path of Leslie is dependent on how a developing trough of low pressure over the eastern United States interacts with the system. The majority of tropical cyclones are swept to the northeast after passing Bermuda's latitude. However, a small number of systems do not curve enough to avoid a collision with Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland. "There is a possibility that the developing feature over the United States captures Leslie and flings the storm more to the north early next week," Kottlowski said, "People in Newfoundland especially should keep a close eye on Leslie." Waters are warmer than usual south of Atlantic Canada. The combination of this and quickening steering winds may result in slower weakening of a hurricane either moving by at sea or plowing toward the coast.
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist -

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