According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "While a large mass of dry air will continue to mitigate the system's strength in the short term, warm water and weak wind shear farther west could allow for modest development in the days ahead."
Conditions could become more favorable for strengthening into a tropical storm by tonight. At this time, we do not expect a quick ramp-up through hurricane intensity levels. However, while the system is oriented about the same latitude as Ernesto was, it appears to be slightly more organized and perhaps slightly farther north. Through the weekend at least, we should see a similar path to Ernesto with the same swift steering wind conditions.