NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:00 pm EDT Thursday June 21, 2012
For the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure centered near the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the Yucatan peninsula northeastward across western Cuba to southern Florida.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or so as this disturbance moves slowly northward into the central Gulf of Mexico.
This system has a medium chance 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48hours. Beyond that time...conditions are expected to remain favorable for development and interests along the entire United States gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula...western Cuba...and southern Florida through Saturday.
Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Courtesy of the AG-ER Team