East and Gulf Coast Tropical Concern

The path and development of a tropical disturbance originating from the western Caribbean and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico are being watched by meteorologists for potential impact along the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard.

At this point, there is a wide range of possibilities on what the tropical Atlantic's next move may be starting this weekend.

One scenario slowly develops a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend then takes it across Florida and over Carolina waters into early next week.

Such a track would bring torrential rain to parts of the Florida Peninsula and could bring a day or two of rough surf and poor beach weather from Florida to the Carolinas for starters.

Even if the system remains weak and disorganized, downpours will continue to affect the southern half of the Florida Peninsula into the weekend.

Another possibility is the budding tropical system moves northward to a certain point in the Gulf of Mexico then turns around and wanders west-southwestward.

Essentially, the system would "miss the train" in this case.

Steering winds are very light in the tropics at this time.

While this favors development to some extent, a weak system could wander just about anywhere over the next few days.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist – Accuweather.com

A system could spin up just about anywhere in the mass of clouds over the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. (Image by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration taken June 20, 2012.)

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