November 18, 2011

Last Hurrah for the Tropics

Officially, it will soon be curtains for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season in 2011. However, both basins may have one last trick up their sleeves before the end of November.

Indications are that one more system will try to form in the the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific within the next week.

At the very least, development in these areas could pose a problem for shipping lanes. Any tropical system near the west coast of Mexico and Central America is also a concern for cruise interests.

A disturbance will try to get going east-northeast of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic and off the coast of Central America in the Pacific in a matter of days.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We feel a system will organize east-northeast of the Leewards, but it will be a question as to whether or not it ever becomes fully tropical."

The development stage of the central Atlantic feature would span this weekend into next week.

As for the Pacific, the timing would be sometime in the upcoming few days if a broad area of low pressure currently located several hundred miles south of Guatemala can become more organized.

"Tropical cyclone formation is rare in both basins this late in the season, but usually development in the Eastern Pacific is over by the middle of November," Kottlowski said.

Kottlowski feels confident the feature in the Atlantic will never be a concern for the Antilles and North America.

However, any feature that develops in the Eastern Pacific potentially could pose some problems.

"The bulk of the tropical systems that form in the Eastern Pacific track harmlessly westward into open, progressively cooler waters and diminish.

There is a way such a feature could hook northeastward with time into central and northern Mexico," Kottlowski said.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30 in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.

"It is way to early to speculate much on the track of a tropical storm or hurricane that has not even formed yet, but we will be keeping an eye on both basins during the week of Thanksgiving," Kottlowski added.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist -

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