September 1, 2011

Tropical Weather Outlook 2:00 PM Update

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, Fl
2:00 PM EDT Thursday September 1, 2011

For the north Atlantic Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Katia located about 1,050 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast is producing a large area of cloudiness thunderstorms and gusty winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development and this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or so. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area later this afternoon.

This system has a high chance 80% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northwestward.

Interests along the entire northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

2. A low pressure system located about 360 miles north of Bermuda has changed little over the past few hours. This system is producing winds of tropical storm force and only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical storm. The low is moving little at this time but should begin to move northeastward at 10 to 15 mph tonight. This system has a medium chance 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

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