August 2, 2010

Tropical Depression to Form Soon in the Atlantic

An area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic will bring the tropics back to life within the next day or two by developing into a tropical depression.

The area of low pressure being closely monitored by the Hurricane Center is churning in the eastern Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The low continues to become better organized, and that trend should continue. However, as of Monday morning, there was still not a well-defined center of circulation.

The low is spinning in an environment conducive for tropical development as it churns over water that is warmer than normal. Strong wind shear that would rip apart the low and prevent strengthening does not lie in its path.

Disruptive wind shear was the reason for the demise of Tropical Storm Bonnie last weekend.

The low should intensify into a tropical depression within the next day or two.

Further strengthening would likely cause the low to become the third tropical storm of the season.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the name "Colin."

The only deterrent to the development of the low is dry air found to its north. As long as the low's track does not take on a more northerly direction than currently expected, this dry air will not impact the low.

The low is forecast to strengthen as it heads in a general west-northwestward fashion. That track should take the low through or just north of the Leeward Islands late Wednesday or Thursday.

Latest computer models show the low either paralleling the northern shores of the Caribbean islands or passing through the Bahamas later in the week into next weekend.

It should be stressed that those computer solutions are not set in stone. Instead, those forecast tracks give meteorologists a general sense of where the low may head.

It is still too early to say where the low will track beyond next weekend, but all residents along the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this low in the upcoming days.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist,

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