May 24, 2010

System Heads for the East Coast

A low pressure system a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas, has changed little over the past day.

This low has the potential to develop into the season's first depression or subtropical storm, and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

This system is expected to move slowly north and then northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next three days, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday night.

Most of the models indicate that Wednesday will be when the system gets closest to the coast, with a position just off the North or South Carolina coast.

All of the major models currently indicate that the low will not make landfall, but will move slowly northeastward out to sea late next week as a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm.

The low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm.

The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to offshore winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current.

Source: Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog,

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