September 3, 2009

Erika Disorganized & Barely A Tropical Storm

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico...the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands. At 800 am AST...1200 UTC...the center of poorly-organized Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 63.1 west or about 40 miles southwest of St. Kitts and about 220 miles east-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track...the weather associated with Erika will continue to move through the Leeward Islands this morning and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. The primary impacts from Erika will be heavy downpours and localized flooding, although some brief gusty winds remain possible. This unsettled weather is already impacting the northern Leeward Islands and will continue into this afternoon Unsettled weather will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and this will continue through Friday. It would then spread across Dominic Republic and Hispaniola this weekend.

Elsewhere, well out in the eastern Atlantic, a new low pressure is now moving off of Africa. There is some chance additional development could occur with this low pressure, as it moves west-northwest. Given its general movement, it would be no threat to any land for at least the next several days.

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