Agricultural Emergency Report

Tornado Watch is in Effect for Panhandle and Big Bend Region

2012-01-26T12:45:00.004-05:00

A tornado watch is in effect for the Western Panhandle until noon.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that spread eastward through the day, so staying on top of the weather will be important for the Panhandle today and tonight.

It looks like there’s been patchy fog across the state, but it is lifting and no dense fog advisories are (or were, for that matter) in effect.

SPC’s severe weather outlook for today and tonight. A slight risk for severe weather (left) exists across the Southeast, and in particular for the Panhandle and western Big Bend. There is some chance for tornadoes, especially in the Panhandle (middle), but also a threat for damaging straight-line winds (right). The potential will decrease to the east, as the storms in Florida will begin to weaken through the night.

The primary focus today will be on the prospects for severe weather. SPC has the Panhandle and the western Big Bend (ending roughly at the Region 1/2 border) highlighted in slight risk for severe weather. Instability will be somewhat limited, so we’ll be relying on the line maintaining itself on large scale ascent ahead of the cold front. However, assuming storms hold together, there’s strong moisture and shear, which should produce at threat for at least damaging straight line winds, and potentially even isolated tornadoes. The key feature is the existing squall line, which should move into the Panhandle in the early afternoon.

However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of isolated supercells developing in advance of the squall line if we can get good heating this afternoon. The line will cross the Panhandle and into the Big Bend through the overnight hours, while likely weakening. While Tallahassee is in the slight risk area, I think the line will have to move quickly for that threat to materialize, as the support for severe weather will move away before the line arrives if it lags.

After that, we should see clearing and cooler, drier air moving in behind this cold front and the secondary front following it. Low RH will become a feature again this weekend. For now, though, it looks like winds will come in below the 15 mph threshold (though gusts may exceed it) and dispersions will decrease with weaker mixing layer flow behind the fronts to also be below its red flag threshold of 75. There should be enough rain moving through (1-2”, perhaps more in localized areas that see stronger storms) to keep ERC values lower, as well. We’ll have to watch the winds and dispersions, though – if higher values of those linger into the late weekend, we could see a red flag warning.

Statewide: A low pressure center over the ArkLaTex region has a warm front across the southeast and a cold front plunging through Central Louisiana. Ahead of that cold front is a squall line moving out of Louisiana and into Mississippi.

It’s supported aloft by a cut-off low over the eastern Texas-Oklahoma border. The lows will move to the northeast towards the Carolinas today, with the low aloft likely weakening as it gets absorbed back into a trough passing to the north. However, this still extends a slight risk of severe weather into the Panhandle and western Big Bend today into tonight.

Southeasterly flow will eventually become southerly today, helping support the thunderstorms with an influx of moisture-rich air off the Gulf. Winds will become southwesterly and switch to northwesterly with the cold frontal passage.

This will begin overnight in the Panhandle, and proceed roughly west to east across the state through tomorrow as the front continues to push through. Winds will also pick up for the next couple of days – this afternoon we are looking at winds in the low to middle teens, but with possible gusts well into the 20s.

While this first front will bring in some cooler air behind it, the real push of cold, dry air will come in behind a secondary cold front attached to an Alberta Clipper poised to move through the state Saturday. We’ll see considerably lower humidity this weekend into early next week, and perhaps even some areas in northern Florida dip to the freezing mark Sunday night.

Sean Luchs,Meteorologist - Florida Forest Service

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

2012-01-19T15:25:00.005-05:00

Latest Seasonal Assessment For Florida and the Southeast:

The drought outlook for January 19 - April 30, 2012 was based upon climate anomalies associated with La Niña, short to medium range forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions.

Frequent periods of precipitation somewhat improved drought conditions across the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast during the past two months.

Persistence or development can be expected across much of the lower Southeast, with the highest forecast confidence in Florida.

Forecaster: D. Miskus

Frigid Blast to Start 2012 from Plains to East

2011-12-29T16:11:00.003-05:00

The harshest, longest-lasting and most widespread cold blast of the season so far for the Plains to the East will arrive the first week of the new year.

Temperatures will fail to climb out of the teens and 20s across portions of the northern Plains on the first day of the new year.

Harsh, gusty winds will contribute to even colder temperatures.

Biting winds greater than 40 mph will factor in to create in the single digits during the day and below zero at night.

Cold of this caliber is dangerous.

People are urged to bundle up and avoid spending time outdoors.

Through Monday, the brutal cold will expand farther south and east across the Great Lakes region, unleashing an impressive lake-effect snow event.

There has only been one day so far this season where the high failed to climb out of the 20s in Chicago, and there may be at least a couple of days where this happens next week. So far this season, Dec. 10 was the only day held in the 20s in Chicago with the high struggling to reach 27 degrees.

By Tuesday, highs will be drastically colder across the East. Highs will be in the teens and 20s across the interior. In the northern Appalachians, highs will only be in the single digits.

Big Northeastern cities along the I-95 corridor will have highs in the 20s and 30s.

"It looks like the cold blast will last for most of the week for the East," according to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. "There could be a brief interruption to the cold late in the week before yet another reinforcing cold shot of air arrives."

Colder air will penetrate the Southeast as well with highs falling and lows dropping below freezing for cities such as Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., and Atlanta, Ga.

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

2011 – 2012 Dry Season Forecast for Florida

2011-12-08T16:54:00.003-05:00

Click on the header for more information from NOAA

Southeast Looking Chillier than Previously Expected

2011-12-02T11:27:00.003-05:00

Bring out the jackets and hats, because it is looking cooler than previously thought for the interior Southeast in December.

The nights will be exceptionally chilly.

After December, however, temperatures are expected to climb higher in January and February, as an area of high pressure is expected to set up along the Southeast coast and pump milder air from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the region.

In general, Winter 2011-2012 is expected to be milder than last winter in the Southeast.

There will be a low chance for a damaging freeze in the citrus area this year.

"Florida looks drier than normal," Pastelok said.

"The farther north and west you travel, the wetter it gets."

An active storm track around the northern and western periphery of high pressure dominating the Southeast will allow above-normal precipitation to fall in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Update

Freeze Warning For Tonight

2011-12-01T16:47:00.007-05:00

National Weather Service

Friday, December 02, 2011 4:00 AM Local Time

Urgent – Weather Message

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 253 PM EST Thursday December 1 2011
Freeze warning in effect from late tonight through early Friday morning; mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall quickly this evening and tonight. Temperatures are expected to approach or fall slightly below freezing across a large portion of area late tonight. Locations along the immediate gulf coast and in more urbanized settings are currently not anticipated to drop below freezing, however areas that reach the middle 30s should still see some frost.

Inland Walton-Central Walton- Holmes-Washington-Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf- Inland Franklin-Gadsden-Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Liberty- Inland Wakulla-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-Quitman-Clay -De Funiak Springs- Hudson-Bonifay-Crystal Lake-Chipley-Five Points.-Marianna-Graceville-Malone-Sneads-Youngstown-Blountstown-White City-Wewahitchka-Quincy-Chattahoochee-Tallahassee-Spring Hill-Monticello-Madison-Crawfordville-Perry-Midway-Mayo-Georgetown -Leesburg-Lakeland

2:53 PM EST Thursday December 1, 2011 /1:53 PM CST Thursday December 1 2011

Freeze warning in effect from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Friday

The NWS in Tallahassee has issued a freeze warning which is in effect from 4 am EST /3 am CST/ to 8 am EST /7 am CST/ Friday. Minimum temperatures 29 to 32 degrees (f) away from urbanized areas. Duration of freeze is around 4 hours the maximum in normally colder inland locations. Impacts include potential damage to sensitive agricultural products and other sensitive vegetation. Precautionary actions for a freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Frost Advisory - Thurs. Dec. 1, 2011 at 1:36 PM until Friday Dec. 2, 2011at 8:00 AM

NWS Jacksonville Frost Advisory for the following counties Baker; Columbia; Hamilton; Suwannee.

3 Day Forecast of Overnight Low's

2011-11-30T16:38:00.005-05:00

Images are courtesy of the National Weather Service, NOAA

Brought to you by the AG-ER Team

Florida Climate Summary

2011-11-29T08:35:00.004-05:00

October 2011

Prepared by Preston Leftwich, David Zierden, and Melissa Griffin

Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Agricultural and other impacts.

The cooler and drier weather has helped facilitate the harvest of peanuts, cotton, and a variety of other crops across portions of the state.

However, drought conditions continue to persist in northern portions of the state, with extreme drought conditions present around Leon and Gadsden Counties and the Choctawhatchee River basin.

Heavy rains in the second half of October eased some of the dry conditions that had been lingering around Lake Okeechobee.

The average lake level is 13.55 ft, which is down from the historic average of 15.03 ft but a significant change from the 11.13 ft that was reported a month ago.

For more information click on the heading above.

Chilly Overnight Temps To Arrive

2011-11-28T12:28:00.008-05:00

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is moving toward Florida and will deliver some cooler weather for our region this week.

High pressure is dominating over the Central Plains, and will ooze into the Eastern US as the cold front makes its way through the state today.

This will allow things to get pretty chilly overnight the first half of the week (bottoming out with freezes in the northwest in the middle week) until a slow warmup begins for the second half.

The invading airmass will also be drier – however, with temperatures coming down as much as they are, it will take a couple days to see minimum Regular High's drop below 35% in the state, if it happens at all.

As with most frontal passages this time of year in a La Niña pattern, the best setup for rain is to our north, and the rain will gradually weaken as the front traverses the state.

However, this front should be at least a little wetter than the last several we’ve seen. The upper air pattern looks to get a little convoluted this week, but the end result appears to keep high pressure in place through the week until a cold front comes through early next week.

Brought to you by the AG-ER Team

Severe Threat Shifts East

2011-11-22T09:07:00.003-05:00

After severe flooding thunderstorms kicked off the holiday week across the southern Plains on Monday and Monday night, the threat for more strong-to-severe thunderstorms shifts eastward.

After a night of heavy thunderstorms in Little Rock, Ark., Shreveport, La., and Tyler, Texas, towns and communities in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Deep South will need to be on alert for potentially dangerous storms today.

Ahead of a cold front trailing from an area of low pressure centered over the Ohio Valley, warm and moist air will surge northward out of the Gulf of Mexico helping to fuel the nasty line of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms should really get going by the midday and well into the afternoon which is when the severe threat will be at its greatest.

Most of the Southeast region will all be at risk for storms capable of producing high winds, hail and even some isolated tornadoes.

The greatest risk from these storms will be the damaging winds.

Gusts from thunderstorms may be in excess of 60 mph.

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of downing tree branches with the strongest winds capable of bringing down trees and power lines.

Although the threat for tornadoes is low, a couple of storms moving across Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama could produce tornadoes.

These storms have already shown a history of producing drenching rain capable of producing flash and urban flooding.

Rainfall rates with the heaviest storms will average between half an inch to one inch per hour.

Families traveling through this region to reach their destinations for the Thanksgiving holiday should be cautious and give themselves extra time to reach their destinations.

Heavy downpours may reduce visibilities and cause ponding on roadways, especially in poor drainage areas.

By this evening and through tonight, these storms will pick up speed as the cold front races to the east.

However, as the night goes on the wind threat associated with these storms will gradually diminish.

By Wednesday, the storms will hit the Southeast coast where there could be a slight chance for more gusty storms.

AG-ER Team

Last Hurrah for the Tropics

2011-11-18T11:33:00.002-05:00

Officially, it will soon be curtains for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season in 2011. However, both basins may have one last trick up their sleeves before the end of November.

Indications are that one more system will try to form in the the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific within the next week.

At the very least, development in these areas could pose a problem for shipping lanes. Any tropical system near the west coast of Mexico and Central America is also a concern for cruise interests.

A disturbance will try to get going east-northeast of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic and off the coast of Central America in the Pacific in a matter of days.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We feel a system will organize east-northeast of the Leewards, but it will be a question as to whether or not it ever becomes fully tropical."

The development stage of the central Atlantic feature would span this weekend into next week.

As for the Pacific, the timing would be sometime in the upcoming few days if a broad area of low pressure currently located several hundred miles south of Guatemala can become more organized.

"Tropical cyclone formation is rare in both basins this late in the season, but usually development in the Eastern Pacific is over by the middle of November," Kottlowski said.

Kottlowski feels confident the feature in the Atlantic will never be a concern for the Antilles and North America.

However, any feature that develops in the Eastern Pacific potentially could pose some problems.

"The bulk of the tropical systems that form in the Eastern Pacific track harmlessly westward into open, progressively cooler waters and diminish.

There is a way such a feature could hook northeastward with time into central and northern Mexico," Kottlowski said.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30 in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.

"It is way to early to speculate much on the track of a tropical storm or hurricane that has not even formed yet, but we will be keeping an eye on both basins during the week of Thanksgiving," Kottlowski added.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Gusty, Drenching Storms To Move Across the Southeast

2011-11-15T16:25:00.006-05:00

While the nastiest thunderstorms will fade as they cross the South Central states late tonight, storms capable of causing localized travel and power disruptions and damage will tour the Southeast Wednesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms, as well as a line of heavy, gusty thunderstorms are likely to push across parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas a day after violent storms, including some tornadoes, hit areas from Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas to Mississippi.

There is the potential for strong wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning strikes and blinding downpours. There is the chance that a couple of the strongest storms may trigger a brief tornado.

In addition to the dangerous weather Wednesday, the setup will also bring needed rain to some locations.

Since May 1, much of the area has received about 50% of its normal rainfall.

This includes Atlanta, Augusta, Ga., Dothan, Ala., and Tallahassee, Fla

The passage of the storms will mark an end to the buildup of warmth and humidity this week.

Temperatures will be slashed by 15 to 20 degrees in the wake of the thunderstorms and the front they precede.

Highs in the 70s to near 80 into Wednesday will be replaced by highs in the 50s and 60s in many areas Thursday and Friday.

A cold front and a storm system moving along it will grind toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard into Wednesday night.

A wedge of warm, humid air ahead of the system will be made somewhat volatile by chilly air moving in aloft, triggering heavy, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Unusual Cold, Frost Threat for North Florida

2011-11-10T09:43:00.008-05:00

Friday will feel more like the dead of winter than the middle of November across Florida with frost also a concern.

In the wake of the front that recently triggered tornadoes across the south-central U.S., unseasonably cool air is set to plunge into Florida by Friday.

Despite sunshine, highs on Friday will be held to the 60s down to central Florida with temperatures only rising into the lower 70s in Miami and Naples.

Friday's high in Orlando will reach only 66 degrees.

The popular family destination typically warms to 80 degrees this time of year and the lower 70s during the heart of winter.

Actually, there will not be much separation between Friday's high and Orlando's normal low of 60 degrees.

Despite the cold air invasion, frost is not a concern along and south of Interstate 4.

However, patchy frost is expected in the outlying areas from Brooksville (north of Tampa) to Jacksonville.

More widespread frost will glaze the Florida Panhandle, away from the coast and downtown Tallahassee.

Patchy frost across the interior of the Florida Panhandle is a concern starting late tonight.

Residents should prepare for the impending cold by covering up or moving sensitive plants and vegetation indoors.

Be sure to provide extra warmth to pets that are kept outdoors.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist at Accuweather.com

La Niña is Back!

2011-11-04T11:40:00.008-04:00

The current drought outlook for October 2011 through January of 2012 published by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirms this trend signaling for drier conditions in most of the same areas (Figure 1).

Southeast Climate Consortium

November 1, 2011

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the biggest player in the game of year-to-year climate variability. El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during April-June and tend to reach maximum strength during December-February.

Typically they persist for 9 to 12 months. La Niña conditions take place when surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean along the equator turns colder than normal.

La Niña can be thought as the opposite of El Niño conditions, in which the same area of the Pacific is warmer than normal. La Niña affects weather patterns in many areas of the world. In the case of the

Southeast U.S.A. it usually brings a drier and warmer winter and spring (November through March).

For Florida, central and lower Alabama, and central and southern Georgia rainfall may be 40 to 60 percent lower than normal and temperatures 3 to 4 degrees warmer than normal.

La Niña events may last more than one year, in fact, they do tend to last longer on average than El Niño events.

Examples of events that lasted longer than one year include the La Niñas of 1954-56 (extreme drought in the southeastern U.S.), 1973-75, and 1999-2001.This year is the second year of a la Niña pattern that started back in July of 2010 and returned after a brief period of neutral conditions during the summer. Figure 1 shows average rainfall anomalies (Nov-Jan) observed during the 2nd year of La Niñas events in the past.

Although La Niña events are never the same, it indicates that drier than normal conditions are generally observed in most of the southern U.S.A.

Figure 2. Average rainfall anomalies observed during second year La Niña events.

Potential Impacts of La Niña Events on Crops

Winter Vegetables: Tomato and green peppers generally yield more during La Niña years than during Neutral or El Niño years. Dry weather generally decreases fungal and bacterial diseases and help growers reduce the number of fungicide applications, however viruses caused by thrips (Tomato Spotted Wilt [TSW]) and white fly (Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl [TYLCV]) are problems. High nighttime temperatures (above 65°F) can be a problem for fruit setting. For more information on how to apply climate information for reducing tomato production risks check the following UF- Extension EDIS publication.

Using Seasonal Climate Variability Forecasts: Risk Management for Tomato Production in South Florida (Click for access to report from UF-IFAS)

Tropics Remain Quiet

2011-11-01T09:51:00.003-04:00

The Tropical Atlantic waters remain void of any system that could remotely organize over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matt Rinde

Strong High Pressure Keeps Atlantic Basin Quiet

2011-10-31T09:35:00.002-04:00

The Atlantic Basin remains generally quiet Monday morning, due in large part to a strong subtropical ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The only real area of significant activity at this time is associated with a stationary front currently draped across the central Bahamas, just south of the Florida Peninsula and extending all the way to the Yucatan.

A wave of low pressure forming along this front is lifting northward and will advect moisture through southern Florida, bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

This feature displays no tropical characteristics and is not expected to develop into an organized tropical system as it continues northward, offshore of the East Coast of the United States.

Elsewhere, with the aforementioned strong subtropical ridge in place, there are no areas of concern and no tropical development expected anywhere across the Atlantic Basin for at least the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Steve Travis

Rina Weaker and Slowly Moving Away from the Yucatan

2011-10-28T08:52:00.003-04:00

Rina continues to weaken.

However, it is expected to slowly move northeast away from the Yucatan today.
The main threat from Rina is rainfall.

Much of the rainfall has ended across the Yucatan, along with the threat for widespread flooding problems.

The current satellite picture continues to show Rina weakening.

The center of circulation is now to the south of the strongest convection thanks to strong upper-level wind shear.

The convection will continue to be ripped away from the low-level center of circulation today as shear is not expected to change.

This will leave nothing more than a low-level swirl of clouds by the weekend, when eventually Rina will turn around and begin to drift south and back out over the Caribbean as a remnant low.

We have also been monitoring a tropical wave over the southern Caribbean. Although the wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.

A third system, a low pressure center to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms; however, due to wind shear aloft, it is currently not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde and Meteorologist Eric Leister.

Rina Weakens to a Tropical Storm

2011-10-27T13:07:00.001-04:00

Rina has weakened to a tropical storm and will make landfall along the northeastern Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today or early tonight.

Rina will then continue north along the coast later tonight into Friday before slowly shifting away to the east over the weekend.

There will be damaging wind and flooding rain along the northeastern Yucatan coast today through Friday, tapering off Friday night. A storm surge of 1-3 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall.

The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina.

This has caused winds to drop to 70 mph, and that trend will likely continue. Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center drifts eastward toward Cuba the mid-level feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.

We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the southern Caribbean.

Although a trough is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde and Meteorologist Eric Leister

Rina Weakening as it Approaches the Yucatan Coast

2011-10-27T08:30:00.004-04:00

Hurricane Rina will make landfall along northeast Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today then it will head north along the coast tonight into tomorrow before slowly shifting away to the east over the weekend.

There will be damaging winds and flooding rains along the northeast Yucatan coast today through Friday, then taper off Friday night.

A storm surge of 2-4 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall. The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina.

This has caused the winds to drop to 75 mph and this trend will probably continue with Rina weakening to a tropical storm by midday or early afternoon.

Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center drifts eastward toward Cuba the midlevel feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.

Hurricane Rina's Projected Path

We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the southern Caribbean.

Althrough a trough is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde and Meteorologist Eric Leister

Hurricane Rina: Cancun in Danger, Florida on Alert

2011-10-26T09:18:00.005-04:00

Powerful Hurricane Rina is on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula then could impact the Florida Peninsula.

Rina remains a dangerous storm in the northwestern Caribbean, churning less than 400 miles off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Rina is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 strength or greater) and could reach that status later today or tonight.

However, the severity of the situation facing the Yucatan Peninsula will not change whether Rina slams onshore as a strong Category 2 or minimal Category 3 hurricane.

Rina will weaken as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

After Friday, Rina could loop southward into western Cuba or the northwestern Caribbean or take a track toward the Florida Keys or South Florida this weekend.

While the latter could mean a damaging wind threat for South Florida, Rina's moisture will stream northward in both solutions and lead to downpours across central or South Florida later this week into early next week.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist Accuweather.com

Hurricane Rina's Projected Path

Rina Strengthening in the NW Caribbean Sea

2011-10-25T10:21:00.006-04:00

Convection continues to build around the circulation of Rina and a gradual increase in strength is expected over the next 24 hours. Rina is the sixth hurricane of the tropical season and has reached Category 2 strength; Rina could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Rina is located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, approximately 215 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. Environmental conditions will remain somewhat favorable for strengthening in that the wind shear will be light and the sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough to sustain a system.

However, one limiting factor for significant strengthening will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the strengthening process down.

Through the middle of the week, Rina will continue tracking slowly toward the west, north of the coast of Honduras.

By the latter part of the week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico, and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and perhaps northeast.

This movement could bring the tropical system near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday or Friday. Some moisture from the storm could extend northeastward across Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas by the end of the week or this weekend, but at this time it is very questionable if the center of the storm will make it much farther north than the Yucatan Channel.

However, residents of South Florida should monitor the progress of Rina very closely as some computer models do take the center of Rina over the Florida Keys or the southernmost tip of Florida later on Friday or Friday night.

The other area we are monitoring for potential development right now is a broad area of low pressure that is currently over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although satellite imagery continues to show some shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure center, it remains rather disorganized without a low-level center of circulation.

This area of low pressure will bring some gusty showers and thunderstorms to the central and southern Windward Islands today as it continues to track westward. This low center should continue to track westward across the Caribbean later in the week, and some development will be possible once it reaches the western Caribbean.

The rest of the North Atlantic tropical basin will not support tropical development for at least the next few days.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller

Frost Advisory Issued

2011-10-21T17:59:00.002-04:00

Frost Advisory: Frost and freezing temps expected again tonight across much of the mid south

A Frost advisory remains in effect from 1 am to 8 am Saturday.

All outdoor plants susceptible to frost should be brought indoors or covered up whichever is more feasible.

Consideration should also be given to outdoor pets without adequate shelter.

Precautionary/preparedness actions a frost advisory means that frost is likely possible.

Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Source: NOAA / NWS

Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico Remains Disorganized

2011-10-18T08:55:00.003-04:00

Visible satellite imagery on Tuesday morning continues to show a low-level center of circulation near a broad low pressure area located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The system has taken a more easterly track, and this should continue today before it turns more northeasterly tonight and tomorrow.

Satellite images also show that showers and thunderstorms associated with the system remain well removed from the low-level center of circulation.

While an earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found winds of tropical storm force at the surface, they were located over 200 miles to the northeast of the low-level center.

Additionally, recent surface observations also indicate tropical storm-force winds away from the center, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds closer to the center remain well below tropical storm strength.

There remains a small window in which this system could organize into a tropical storm should the wind shear aloft weaken.

However, recent satellite imagery continues to indicate strong wind shear, and the time is running out for the storm to develop.

Entering this afternoon, stronger wind shear will develop over the storm, preventing further tropical development.

However, even if this storm does not become an organized tropical system, winds of 20-40 mph can still be expected over the coastal areas of Florida and the Keys with gusts to near 50 mph through tonight.

This system will most likely track to the northeast before merging with a cold front that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico today and reach northern Florida by tonight. From there, we expect the storm to move along the Southeast, then mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during Wednesday.

During this time, the storm will merge with the eastward moving cold front. Computer forecasts are suggesting that this storm could continue to wrap up as a non-tropical storm and bring gale-force winds to coastal areas of the U.S. tonight through Wednesday night.

Some model output is suggesting winds could be almost hurricane force out over the open waters off the Southeast coast on Wednesday.

Regardless of what form this storm takes, Florida will be impacted by this system into Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds.

The Florida Keys have already been inundated with over 10 inches of rainfall and over the next few days this deep tropical moisture will continue to be drawn northward and eastward across the Florida Peninsula.

Between now and Wednesday, much of the Florida Peninsula should receive an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally 6 inches possible.

The cold front and storm will bring moderate to heavy rainfall and even some localized flooding into parts of the southeastern United States from Alabama eastward into the Carolinas at first, then farther north into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states by Wednesday night and Thursday.

A tropical wave located well east of the Windward Islands has a large but very disorganized area of clouds associated with it that are producing a few showers and thunderstorms.

Development over the next day or two is unlikely as it will be tracking into an area of strong upper-level winds aloft.

If the shear relaxes later this week the system could become better organized.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
Updated By AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis

Development Possible near Yucatan Peninsula

2011-10-17T14:12:00.001-04:00

Visible satellite imagery from mid Monday morning shows a low level circulation center located near 21.8 north, 89.3 west or just north of the northwest coast of the Yucatan of Mexico.

This feature appears to be drifting southwest or could be making a large cycloidal loop.

The image shows no thunderstorms or convective showers around this well defined swirl.

However, a ship located near 25.6 north, 88.7 west or 265 miles almost due north of the low level center is reporting sustained winds of 50 mph. Winds closer to the low level feature is generally less than 20 mph.

So, the wind field associated with this system so far is more like that of a subtropical storm.

It's highly possible this will be upgraded to a subtropical or tropical storm later today depending on trends.

A U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance plane is now investigating the system and should help determine whether this is an organized tropical system.

The most likely track of this system is to move northeastward ahead of a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and move over central or northern Florida by late tomorrow or tomorrow night.

From there we expect the storm to move along the Southeast then mid Atlantic coast of the United States during Wednesday. By this time the storm will merge with the eastward moving cold front.

Computer forecasts are suggesting that this storm could wrap up and bring tropical storm force winds to coastal areas of the U.S. tomorrow night through Wednesday night.

Some model output is suggesting winds could be near hurricane force out over the open waters off the southeast coast.

Regardless of what form this storm takes Florida will be impacted by this system over the next several days with locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds.

The Florida Keys have already been inundated with rainfall and over the next few days this deep tropical moisture will continue to be pulled northward and eastward across the Florida Peninsula.

Between now and Wednesday, much of the Florida Peninsula may receive 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally 8 inches possible.

The cold front and storm will bring moderate to heavy rainfall and even some localized flooding into parts of the southeastern United States from Alabama eastward into the Carolinas at first then further north into the mid Atlantic and Northeast States by Wednesday night and Thursday.

One other area we are monitoring is in the far-eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave is about 1,400 east of the Windward Islands.

Although satellite imagery shows some disorganized cloud and thunderstorm development associated with the wave, development over the next day or two is unlikely as it will be tracking into a zone of strong upper-level winds aloft.

However, if the shear relaxes the system could become better organized.

This could start to happen by the latter half of this week.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet for Now

2011-10-13T14:47:00.004-04:00

The Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet for Now

No organized tropical systems are found in the Atlantic Basin at this time, and none are expected to develop over the next couple of days.

The mid- and upper-level flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico on eastward into the central North Atlantic remains strong from the west and west-northwest.

This should remain in place through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

These strong winds aloft will create too much shear to support any development north of 25 north.

Farther south, we see a large band of clouds, showers and thunderstorms along and near 10 north across the southern part of the North Atlantic.

A monsoon trough extends from the African coast westward to near 20 west then the ITCZ extends farther west all the way to the northern coast of South America.

This area remains very disorganized.

Tropical Depression 12 from the Pacific Basin is tracking to the east across southeastern Mexico, near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

Current computer models are showing this weak feature drifting eastward and back over the warm waters of the western Caribbean on Sunday or Sunday night.

This is just one of several possibilities with respect to where the remnant depression will end up.

Other scenarios keep the system over land creating a prolonged heavy rain event for parts of Central America through at least early next week.

Another possibility is that the feature will drift to the south and over the east Pacific to reorganize.

Any development of this feature will be slow to occur.

We will keep an eye on this area in case it does end up moving into the western Caribbean.

If it does, there is some lower-level and upper-level support for development next week.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Paul Walker

Low Producing Heavy Rain, Wind

2011-10-11T08:34:00.003-04:00

A storm system that formed just southeast of Miami Sunday and moved inland over Cape Canaveral Sunday night was centered just southwest of Tallahassee, Fla., Tuesday morning.

The storm reached a low pressure of 998 millibars Sunday night just before it moved inland near Cape Canaveral.

The lowest pressure in the system is now around 1007 millibars. The low pressure center will transfer its energy to another developing low just east of Georgia this afternoon or evening, then track northward along the East Coast tonight and Wednesday.

There is no chance that this system will be able to become an organized tropical system.

This storm system will continue to create a strong pressure gradient with a large high pressure area to the north. This will help funnel deep tropical moisture into coastal and near coastal areas of the southeast United States today and tonight.

This deep moisture will support moderate to heavy rainfall.

The pressure gradient will also bring strong gusty winds mostly to coastal areas with wind gusts to or just above 40 mph. Beyond tonight, the storm system will track into the eastern Middle Atlantic states to bring 1-3 inches of rain.

The pressure gradient is expected to weaken by Wednesday, but there still will be a strong gusty wind along the coast.

Satellite images and even radar suggested this system was never a pure tropical system. However, one could argue that this could have been classified as a subtropical storm from late Sunday through Sunday night.

Since the system moved over land in less than 12 hours after it formed, it did not stay over water long enough to become a fully developed subtropical or tropical system.

Regardless of being classified, it has produced rainfall of 4-12 inches of rain along the east coast of Florida and 2-8 inches elsewhere across the Sunshine State.

We see no other tropical systems across the Atlantic Basin that would evolve into an organized tropical system during the next several days.

Long-range computer forecasts are showing low pressure slowly evolving over the western Caribbean next week.

Whether that becomes an organized tropical system is highly uncertain at this point.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-10-11T08:32:00.002-04:00

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 800 AM EDT Tuesday October 11, 2011 for the North Atlantic Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Low Near Florida Producing Heavy Rain, Wind

2011-10-10T09:13:00.002-04:00

An area of low pressure near the space coast of Florida has become better organized, producing heavy rain and gale force winds along the east coast of the state.

Despite the hard-hitting impacts of this system, it remains "un-named" and therefore not a tropical entity.

Although the winds have reached tropical storm force, and there is some spin in the atmosphere, a closed surface circulation has not developed, a determining characteristic for tropical storm formation.

There remains a low chance that this disturbance could attain tropical or sub-tropical characteristics early this week as it drifts near the Southeast coast before moving northward through the southern Appalachians.

Nevertheless, tropical storm conditions will continue to be felt along the Southeast coast from northern Florida to South Carolina Monday.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Northeast and the disturbance will lead to gusty winds.

Rainfall will also be heavy at times from the Florida Panhandle to South Carolina.

Rain will move northward into the eastern Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic by mid-week although winds should subside.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, no imminent tropical development is expected.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Dan DePodwin

August 2011 Climate Summary

2011-10-10T08:57:00.002-04:00

Get the latest report prepared by Preston Leftwich, David Zierden, and Melissa Griffin of the Florida Climate Center

August 2011 Climate Summary – Florida (Click here)

Average temperatures continue above normal in August.

Rainfall totals vary during August.

Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Philippe Remains a Category 1 Hurricane

2011-10-07T11:15:00.003-04:00

Philippe is a category 1 hurricane moving over the open Central North Atlantic well east of Bermuda.

The hurricane will start to experience a more hostile environment today and into this weekend as strong upper level winds oriented southwest to northeast overtake it's circulation. This is already causing the storm to become tilted to the northeast.

Water temperatures along the expected path of Philippe are going to remain warm enough to keep the system tropical. However, drier air and that strong shear will cause the system to unravel. Already it has begun to weaken slightly, and this trend to will continue over the next 24 hours.

So, we are expecting Philippe to be downgraded to a tropical storm later tonight or Saturday. Philippe will track into the North Atlantic this weekend and become a non tropical storm system.

Computer models are forecasting the development of low pressure roughly from the southeastern Gulf to the western Bahamas to the southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The exact location of where development is going to take place is highly uncertain at this point since we don't have a feature forming just yet. Once developed this feature will head northward and bring Florida gusty winds and wet stormy weather mostly from Saturday night through Sunday night.

Some computer information suggests that this low pressure area will become an organized tropical system that will track northward either just west of the Florida peninsula or along and near the east coast of the Sunshine State.

All interests in Florida and over the coastal Southeast U.S. should monitor the development of this system this weekend.

Regardless of strength this system should bring a large area of rain northward across the southeast U.S. early next week and further north over the mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. late next week.

Since much of the Northeast U.S. has experienced higher than normal rainfall during the past few weeks there is a higher than normal chance for flooding rainfall from this system during the middle and latter part of next week over the northeast United States.

The rest of the North Atlantic Tropical Basin should remain relatively quiet through the weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Brian Wimer

Philippe Surviving as a Tropical Storm

2011-10-04T10:07:00.001-04:00

Philippe continues to remain a tropical storm despite encountering very strong wind shear.

The shear will weaken a little Tuesday night, allowing the storm an opportunity to strengthen.

Late Tuesday the storm is expected to turn towards the west as it significantly slows down. It then will turn to the northeast as it encounters an upper trough and surface cold front to its east.

There is a chance that it will become a hurricane later this week as environmental conditions become marginally favorable.

Shear may also increase once again late in the week, which should than weaken the storm.

Elsewhere; Ophelia, now a tropical rainstorm, continues to move quickly off to the east over the northern Atlantic. It will track in the general direction of Scotland over the next couple of days.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matt Alto

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-10-03T08:38:00.004-04:00

National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

For the north Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on tropical storm Ophelia located about 65 miles west-northwest of cape race Newfoundland and on tropical storm Philippe located about 745 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Reported by NWS

Philippe refuses to weaken despite very strong wind shear. It will likely weaken some over the next 48 hours.

Beyond that time frame, Philippe will be in a more favorable area for development, so it could re-strengthen some by the middle of the week.

For now, Philippe will pose no threat to land as it churns over the open waters of the Atlantic.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

Ophelia and Philippe

2011-09-28T10:01:00.003-04:00

Ophelia is still churning in the Atlantic Ocean.

The upper trough affecting Ophelia is tracking east and should continue to shear Ophelia over the next 24-36 hours, so the feature will continue to pulse up and down to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.

The upper trough will move away from Ophelia on Thursday and Friday and the upper-level shear may lessen, so Ophelia could strengthen as she moves to the northwest across warm waters.

An upper trough deepening over the eastern U.S. this weekend will help to steer Ophelia to the north and northeast, away from the East Coast and possibly to the east of Bermuda.

It's not out of the question that Ophelia strengthens to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to track slowly northwestward at this time over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Environmental conditions are still hostile with strong westerly wind shear affecting the system. Philippe is barely holding on to tropical-storm strength.

In fact, satellite images show that the low-level center of circulation is still disconnected from the thunderstorms that are to the north and east.

The shear will continue to affect the storm in coming days, preventing the possibility of any strengthening.

In fact, it should weaken into a depression soon if the wind shear does not let up at all.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards

Tropical Storm Philippe; the Remnants of Ophelia

2011-09-27T08:30:00.001-04:00

While Ophelia is a remnant low, the leftover clouds and moisture could bring some heavy bands of rain to the northern Lesser Antilles through tomorrow.

There is concern that the system could regenerate into a tropical cyclone later today or tomorrow as it tracks into a slightly more favorable environment.

In fact, early guidance shows that many of the models now redevelop the system as a tropical storm by 24-36 hours from now.

Stay tuned for further updates on the situation.

Tropical Storm Philippe is continuing on a northwesterly track at this time over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Environmental conditions support brief changes in intensity over the next few days before gradual weakening commences by the end of the week.

The storm will continue to move along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge the next few days before being picked up by a large upper trough forecast to develop over the eastern Atlantic by the end of the week.

In any case, no impacts to land are expected as Philippe will remain out to sea through the forecast period.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Brian Edwards and Rob Richards

Tropical Storm Ophelia Continues Westward

2011-09-22T17:39:00.004-04:00

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to track westward across the south-central Atlantic.

The storm is currently located 970 miles east of the Leeward Island.

Satellite images through late Thursday morning suggest the storm remains somewhat disorganized due to strong southwesterly shear.

Satellite images show the low level circulation center west and southwest of the more intense thunderstorms.

In fact there are no thunderstorms on the west and southwest side of the storm. Ophelia passed buoy 41041 early this morning with sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 78 mph.

Since then the thunderstorms to the east and north of the storm have weakened suggesting winds are no stronger and perhaps less than what the buoy encountered.

The 20-25kt shear currently over the storm will prevent the system from becoming stronger during the next few days.

In fact, Ophelia should gradually weaken tomorrow and over the weekend as strong shear and drier air lie in its path.

There is some chance the upper level system to the north and west of Ophelia causing the shear might weaken or move away from Ophelia early next week.

This might give the storm an opportunity to restrengthen.

Ophelia will make a gradual turn more to the west-northwest later today and tonight, continuing on that track through the weekend.

This path will take Ophelia near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Beyond that, models show Ophelia taking a sharp turn to the north which will take the storm near Bermuda during the middle of next week.

A small shift in the track to the south could mean greater impact across populated areas.

In the meantime, no computer information is suggesting a threat to the Bahamas or the mainland of the United States.

So, the only real affect Ophelia will have is higher-than-average surf along the East Coast next week.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the time being with no other organized systems and no additional tropical development expected through Saturday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Tropical Storm Ophelia Pushing West

2011-09-21T08:46:00.002-04:00

Tropical Storm Ophelia is continuing to push westward around 13 mph early on Wednesday morning and is still approximately 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands. While still rather unorganized, showers and thunderstorms are very numerous with this system.

Persistent shear aloft will prevent the system from strengthening before it eventually makes it into the Leeward Islands. While shear is in place, it will not be strong enough to tear the storm apart.

Ophelia will likely remain a tropical storm throughout its track through the Atlantic, and at times, may strengthen briefly.

Computer models forecast Ophelia to track north of Hispaniola early next week, then tracking east of the Bahamas. Eventually, models show Ophelia tracking near Bermuda during the middle of next week.

Nonetheless, heavy flooding rain and gusty winds will affect parts of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.

Timing is still a bit uncertain as the system hasn't progressed all that much in the last few hours. Interests in the Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should pay close attention to the progression of Tropical Storm Ophelia in the coming days.

In the meantime, no models at this current time suggest a threat to the mainland of the United States, so the only real affect Ophelia will have is higher-than-average surf along the East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is an area of low pressure still pushing west, about 230 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Despite the shear, this low is producing some showers and thunderstorms while remaining somewhat organized. This low will likely push through the Leeward Islands today and tonight.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the time being with no other organized systems.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Don Pillittere

Maria Continues to Move Northward over the Western Atlantic

2011-09-14T08:47:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Maria is still moving slowly, at around 10 mph to the north-northwest. The storm is centered well east of the Bahamas and still over 600 miles to the south-southwest of Bermuda, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The storm is still fighting wind shear, although the shear has eased a little overnight and early on Wednesday morning.

The center of circulation is near the northwestern edge of the main convection. The storm has now moved far enough to the north that its heavy rain has ended in Puerto Rico.

Maria will move farther north and will eventually gain some strength as the nearby upper-level trough weakens and shear remains weaker than it has been. Despite this break in shear, Maria will not likely get any stronger than a tropical storm as the week goes on. This is due to consistent, moderate shear in place, as well as the storm moving over cooler waters later this week.

The storm will move northward today and tomorrow as the high to the east and the upper-level trough to the west will not shift much. The track will take the storm between the East Coast and Bermuda before moving well south of Nova Scotia. The main impacts from Maria will be rough surf and the increased threat for rip currents along the East Coast.

Also, the outer bands of Maria may bring gusty showers to Bermuda later tonight into Thursday. Maria will eventually be picked up by the trough in the eastern United States and will race into the northern Atlantic after crossing over or near Newfoundland on Friday.

In the longer range, a cold front will swing across the East Coast late this week. The tail of this front will stall off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday.

Many global computer forecast models are hinting that an area of low pressure may try to form along this front by the weekend or early next week and it is possible this low could become tropical as it will be over warm waters.

It is much too early to tell if this low will develop and what its track would be, but it will be an area we need to monitor later this week for potential development.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of interest for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-09-12T09:21:00.004-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 am EDT Mon September 12, 2011

For the north Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Maria located about 165 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Weather Update

2011-09-09T09:16:00.003-04:00

Summary:

Katia remains a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. Katia will maintain is hurricane strength until Saturday morning as it will track over waters just warm enough to maintain tropical systems over the next 24 hours.

In addition, Katia is moving away from the stronger shear that was affecting the storm yesterday.

Beyond Saturday morning, Katia will then move northeastward into cooler waters and a zone of higher wind shear as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies. Katia will then transition to a powerful post-tropical storm over the weekend and will bring a round of heavy rain and gusty winds to the British Isles on Monday.

Tropical Storm Maria remains a tropical storm on Friday morning with sustained winds of 40 mph. Satellite imagery shows that although some deep thunderstorms have developed over the last 6-12 hours, they are nearly all to the north and northeast of the center of Maria.

The fast-forward motion of Maria combined with some strong southwesterly winds aloft are keeping Maria from becoming better organized at this time. However, Maria will have the opportunity to maintain its strength and perhaps slowly strengthen over the weekend as it moves into a zone of less wind shear.

However, if Maria does become a hurricane, it will likely not be until early next week.

In the meantime, Maria will bring gusty winds and squalls of heavy rain starting this morning to the Lesser Antilles. Eventually by Saturday night into Sunday, these squalls of wind and rain will spread all the way westward into Puerto Rico.

Maria is expected to eventually make a more northward turn later this weekend into early next week as forecast computer models show a weakening upper-level high pressure ridge to the north. However, there is also some concern the forecast models could be turning Maria too far north too quickly as the storm still has a considerable amount of westward momentum since it is moving nearly due west at around 20 mph.

Tropical Storm Nate remains nearly stationary over the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 mph. Computer forecast models have come into better agreement on Friday morning with respect to the track of Nate. The storm should remain nearly stationary over the next 12 hours or so and then a strengthening upper-level high pressure ridge building over the northern Gulf of Mexico will push Nate westward. This upper-level ridge should prevent Nate from moving northward into the Gulf and instead will force it westward into Mexico with a landfall likely between Tampico and Veracruz.

In fact, forecast models continue to trend southward so landfall near Veracruz may be more likely than near Tampico. The farther south Nate remains, the quicker landfall would be as there would be less distance across the Bay of Campeche for the storm to cover. A quicker landfall could also keep Nate from strengthening as much, but it is still likely to become a hurricane later today as it is over warm water with weak winds aloft. Several inches of rain will continue to affect the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco and Veracruz.

Elsewhere, there are no immediate threats for tropical development in the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

Tropical Activity Thursday Update

2011-09-08T08:58:00.003-04:00

Summary:

Tropical Storm Nate formed in the Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening. As of 8am Thursday, Nate was located 125 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, which is also around 742 miles southwest of Key West, Florida and 778 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.

Nate is nearly stationary, moving very slowly to the southeast at 1 mph. Weak steering currents and high pressure over Cuba will promote a rather erratic east to northeast motion today.

Beginning Friday, a ridge of high pressure over Texas and Mexico is forecast to strengthen and cause Nate to curve to the left.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Nate meandering over the Bay of Campeche through early Friday before moving northwest then west toward Mexico throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph. Some strengthening is forecast as Nate moves over warm waters under very little wind shear, and Nate may become a hurricane by Sunday.

Even if Nate stays away from Florida, a hurricane in the southwest Gulf of Mexico could produce ocean swells that traverse the Gulf of Mexico, which could affect Florida Panhandle beaches early next week.

As of 8am ET Thursday, Hurricane Katia was located about 325 miles west of Bermuda and 565 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina. This position is also about 700 miles northeast of Jacksonville, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, making Katia a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

Little change in strength is forecast over the next two days, but a slow weakening trend and post-tropical transition is then forecast to occur this weekend as Katia encounters increasing wind shear and cooler ocean waters.

Hurricane Katia is now moving north at 14 mph and passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, but Katia is expected to turn more toward the north-northeast and increase in forward speed by tonight. Katia will continue northeast through the weekend as it gets picked up by a frontal system currently along the U.S. East Coast.

Even though the storm is expected to stay away from Florida and the U.S., ocean swells and very dangerous rip currents from the storm will affect the Florida East Coast this week. A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Florida Atlantic Coast mainly north of Jupiter Inlet.

Tropical Depression 14 strengthened to Tropical Storm Maria late Wednesday morning and at 8am ET Thursday, Maria was located approximately 760 miles east of the Leeward Islands, which is also 2,150 miles from Miami, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, but Maria is becoming more poorly organized and may have lost a center of circulation.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Maria this afternoon to determine if it has degenerated into a tropical wave.

If Maria survives the increased wind shear over the next 72 hours, it could begin to strengthen as it passes north of Puerto Rico.
Maria is currently moving toward the west around 23 mph and this general motion is expected today as it is steered around the southern edge of high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Friday.

Computer models are in decent agreement and most show this system moving west-northwest and approaching the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands this weekend before turning more towards the northwest in about 4-5 days as high pressure in the western Atlantic weakens. Long range models then predict a northward turn in 6-7 days.

It is still too early to tell if Tropical Storm Maria will have any impact on Florida or the U.S.

Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management

Prepare for Upcoming Storms Maria & Nate

2011-09-07T09:18:00.002-04:00

Weather systems from the tropics will continue to pose the threat of heavy rain and flooding problems for the Atlantic Seaboard through mid-September.

Current indications are that at least two more systems have a shot at wandering close enough to the east coast of North America to bring heavy rainfall to troubled areas dealing with flooding.

The next two names on the list of tropical cyclones in the 2011 Atlantic season are Maria and Nate.

Hurricane and Tropical Weather Coordinator Dan Kottlowski states that an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression 14 in the central Atlantic are concerns.

“One or both of the systems has a window of opportunity to reach the Eastern U.S.," Kottlowski said.

A system is expected to brew over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this week in the shadow of parent storm Lee.

"Steering flow in the region could allow this feature to wander northeastward this weekend into next week," Kottlowski said.

At the same time, steering flow over the central Atlantic could guide T.D. 14 farther west than Katia, perhaps bringing it close to or over the southern Atlantic coast later in the month.

There is a risk for two back-to-back rainmakers along the Atlantic Seaboard around the middle of the month.

"Given how wet things are or will continue to get this week in the wake of Irene, and then Lee, the worst-case scenario is we have renewed flooding from one or both systems, even without measuring the strength of both features in terms of wind and wave action," Kottlowski added.

Irene brought flooding to parts of the Northeast. Lee has flooded part of the Southeast and will bring flooding to part of the Northeast.

Even in the wake of both systems, streams and rivers will remain high, setting the stage for more trouble with flooding if any tropical system wanders nearby.

Even though Katia will likely re-curve well to the east of the Atlantic Seaboard, this does not mean that people in the same area should let their guard down for the balance of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

The overall weakness in the Bermuda High that developed in mid-August remains.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist – Accuweather.com

Tropics Tuesday Update

2011-09-06T08:48:00.004-04:00

Despite Katia staying away from land, big swells and rough surf will pound the East Coast this week. This is especially from the Outer Banks to New England Wednesday to Friday.

Dangerous rip currents will increase in frequency this week; those heading into the surf should be on guard for dangerous conditions.

Bermuda will not escape the dangerous increase in tides and rip currents this week either.

Lee made landfall yesterday morning in south-central Louisiana, and then weakened to a tropical rainstorm.

Lee still brings the threat for rain, as well as tornadoes across much of the Southeast for today.

However, Lee and its moisture should be absorbed into an upper-level trough and frontal system to the north by midweek. Heavy rain associated with Lee will move into the Northeast through tomorrow, leading to the renewed threat for more flooding.

Meanwhile, a vigorous tropical wave about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic could develop into the next named storm. The wave is associated with a broad area of low pressure.

Widespread thunderstorms noted on satellite are showing a broad circulation, an indication that organization into a tropical depression may already be under way. Initial movement would be to the west-northwest this week.

The intensity of any tropical system is a bit uncertain at this point, but thunderstorms and gusty winds may move into the Windward and Leeward islands by this weekend.

Closer to the United States, there is some indication a tropical system could develop on the tail end of front in the southwest Gulf of Mexico later this week. Any development or organization will be slow through the end of the week.

Elsewhere, there are no imminent threats for tropical development in the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek, Updated By Meteorologist Don Pillittere

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-09-02T10:12:00.005-04:00

Summary:

D #13 is nearly stationary, drifting slowly toward the north around 1mph.

Computer models have come into better agreement, and most models along with the official forecast indicate that TD 13 will meander slowly north or northwest through the next 24 hours. High pressure currently north of the system is forecast to move eastward, which will allow for a more north and northeast movement beginning Saturday.

On the forecast track, the storm will move inland over southern Louisiana on Monday, but the much of the Florida Panhandle, west of Tallahassee, lies within the 5 day error cone. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Pascagoula, Mississippi to Sabine Pass, Texas.

It is too early to tell if this system will have a direct impact on Florida, but it should be monitored over the next couple of days. Regardless of the track, TD 13 will at least be responsible for increasing tropical moisture across the state and allowing for higher chances of rain this weekend and early next week.

The chance of receiving tropical storm force winds in Florida is less than 20%.

Heavy rainfall will be the main concern and the slow movement of the storm could produce rainfall amounts as high as 5-10 inches, with locally higher amounts, across the western Florida Panhandle and between 2 and 6 inches across the eastern Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. This rainfall could come in a short period of time, resulting in flash flooding and river flooding concerns. Flash Flood Watches are likely for portions of Northwest Florida by Labor Day.

In addition, increasing winds and ocean swells will increase the threat for high waves and rip currents along the Florida Panhandle coast. High Surf Advisories are in effect west of Destin, Florida.

At 5am ET Friday, Tropical Storm Katia was located over the central Atlantic about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands, or about 1,920 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70mph, but Katia is expected to regain hurricane intensity within the next 48 hours and could still become a major hurricane by Wednesday of next week.

Tropical Storm Katia is now moving west-northwest around 15mph, but a turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward pace is expected through the next 2 days as it is steered into a weakness in a high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic.

Most computer models remain in good agreement on the system and these models along with the official 5-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center keeps the system over the central Atlantic away from any land masses through the next 5 days.

Long range computer models continue to indicate that Katia may move back towards the west-northwest next week as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic, but may still be steered north later next week.

However, computer model tracks have been trending westward and still bears watching through the weekend. Even if the storm stays away from the U.S., ocean swells from the storm could affect the Florida East Coast next week.

Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management

Tropical Weather Outlook 2:00 PM Update

2011-09-01T15:04:00.003-04:00

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, Fl
2:00 PM EDT Thursday September 1, 2011

For the north Atlantic Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Katia located about 1,050 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast is producing a large area of cloudiness thunderstorms and gusty winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development and this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or so. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area later this afternoon.

This system has a high chance 80% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northwestward.

Interests along the entire northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

2. A low pressure system located about 360 miles north of Bermuda has changed little over the past few hours. This system is producing winds of tropical storm force and only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical storm. The low is moving little at this time but should begin to move northeastward at 10 to 15 mph tonight. This system has a medium chance 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-09-01T08:48:00.002-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center - Miami, Florida
8:00 AM EDT Thursday September 1, 2011

For the north Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Katia located about 1065 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms and gusty winds mainly on its east side. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development. However...conditions are forecast to become more conducive later today and the system could become a tropical depression during the next day or so. This system has a high chance 70% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northwestward. Interests along the entire northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 360 miles north of Bermuda. This low is expected to move northeastward at 10 to 15 mph without significant development over the next couple of days.

This system has a low chance 10% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Katia Update

2011-08-31T09:08:00.005-04:00

Summary:

At 5am ET Wednesday, Tropical Storm Katia was located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 985 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, or about 2,775 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65mph. Katia continues to become gradually better organized in structure and though the storm is currently moving into an area of dry air in the central Atlantic, environmental conditions are largely favorable for additional intensification and the dry air may only limit the rate of strengthening.

The official forecast and computer models continue to indicate that Katia could become a hurricane later today, or at least within the next 24 hours, and potentially a major hurricane within the next 72 hours.

T.S. Katia is moving quickly west-northwest around 21mph, and this general motion but a decrease in forward pace is expected through the next 2-3 days as it is steered around the southern edge of high pressure in the central and western Atlantic before turning more towards the northwest into a weakness in the high pressure ridge.

Computer models are in very good agreement on the system and these models along with the official 5-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center keeps the system over the eastern and central Atlantic away from any land masses.

However, longer range computer models suggest the storm will move north of the northern Leeward Islands early next week before turning more northward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean Sea about 375 miles south-southwest of Key West, Florida, is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity.

Computer models are not being run on the system, but the wave is moving west-northwest around 10-15mph and should move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula today and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight or tomorrow.

Though development is not immediately expected, there is a chance for development once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is indicating only a 10% chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management

Tropical Storm Katia

2011-08-30T09:22:00.004-04:00

Summary:

Tropical Depression #12 increased in organization overnight and became Tropical Storm Katia, the 11th named storm of the 2011 season, early Tuesday morning while located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 535 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40mph. Though wind shear is currently around the system, the shear will decrease within the next 12 hours and environmental conditions will be favorable for additional intensification.

The official forecast and computer models indicate that Katia could become a hurricane by late Wednesday night or early Thursday and potentially a major hurricane by this weekend.

T.S. Katia is now moving quickly west-northwest around 17mph, and this general motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through the next few days as it is steered around the southern edge of high pressure in the central and western Atlantic.

The official 5-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center keeps the system over the eastern and central Atlantic away from any land masses. However, longer range computer models suggest the storm could approach and move north of the northern Leeward Islands early next week before turning more northward as a low pressure trough enters the western Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Katia is over 3,275 miles from Florida and it is too early to tell if the system will be a U.S. threat.

Reported by Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management

Irene over Abaco Island

2011-08-25T16:06:00.007-04:00

Hurricane Irene Intermediate Advisory
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2011

Eye of Irene over Abaco Island,

At 200 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Irene was located near latitude 26.5 north, longitude 77.2 west. Irene is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. This motion is expected to continue through tonight with a turn toward the north by early Friday. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will move north of the northwestern Bahamas later today, and pass well offshore of the east coast of Central and North Florida tonight and early Friday. The hurricane is forecast to approach the coast of North Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.

Irene is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Some strengthening is possible today and tonight.

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles.

Hurricane Irene Track

2011-08-25T15:44:00.009-04:00

More areas of North Carolina ordered evacuations after the forecast for Hurricane Irene took a turn for the worse on Thursday, with the Category 3 storm now expected to track farther inland. That puts more people within the warning "cone" issued by the National Hurricane Center.

New York City, Long Island, Atlantic City and Virginia Beach were among the areas now near the center of Irene's forecast path, along with even more areas of North Carolina, where Irene is expected to make a first landfall on Saturday.

The forecast, updated by the hurricane center at 11 a.m. ET, shows the "cone" covering areas where 55 million people live.

Irene's wind weakened to 115 mph from 125 mph overnight, but it remains a powerful hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles out from its center, while tropical-storm force winds extend 290 miles.

For more information visit www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44270712/ns/weather/?GT1=43001
Reported by the AG-ER Team

Hurricane Irene Update

2011-08-25T08:44:00.002-04:00

After Irene strengthens on its way through the Bahamas, the hurricane will take aim at the North Carolina Outer Banks and New England this weekend.

Irene remains a dangerous Category 3 hurricane (the threshold for major hurricane classification) this morning, and will soon reach Category 4 strength.

The hurricane is expected to make landfall over the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon or evening as a strong Category 3 or Category 4 storm.

Reported by the AG-ER Team

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-08-25T08:34:00.002-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2011

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on hurricane Irene located near Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas and on Tropical Depression Ten located about 435 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde islands.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues near a low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Although Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable these winds could become a little more conducive for development in a couple of days. This system has a low chance 20% of becoming a tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the West-northwest at about 15 mph.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Irene Update

2011-08-24T08:32:00.004-04:00

This particular path will spare some areas from the worst effects. However, areas closer to the center of Irene will have dangerous and damaging conditions related to coastal flooding, rough surf and high winds.

The eye wall of Irene will stay to the east of Florida. However, there is the possibility of a couple of gusty thunderstorms in Miami on Thursday. In general, winds will stay below tropical storm force.

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-08-24T08:25:00.002-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2011

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on major Hurricane Irene located about 55 miles southeast of Acklins Island in the Bahamas.

1. A low pressure system located about 1150 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands is producing limited cloudiness and shower activity. Although the low is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward warmer waters upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for significant development. This system has a low chance...near 0%...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the Cape Verde islands. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for slow development of this low during the next several days. This system has a medium chance 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves Westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Irene to Strike the Carolinas as a Major Hurricane

2011-08-23T08:48:00.003-04:00

Irene remains on track to slam into the Carolinas as a major hurricane this weekend, posing a severe threat to lives and property.

Given the setup in the atmosphere as well as where hurricanes have traveled from similar starting points, negotiating the Antilles, Irene may take a path somewhat similar to Hurricane Bertha in 1996.

The difference between Bertha and Irene is that Bertha was a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Irene should come onshore as a strong Category 3 hurricane.

Irene would then become the strongest hurricane to strike the Carolinas since Fran in 1996.

People in the eastern part of the Carolinas, especially the coastal areas and barrier islands from the Myrtle Beach area on northeast, should begin making preparations for a possible hurricane landfall that brings 100-mph winds or greater, storm surge flooding, torrential rainfall and possible tornadoes.

People in these areas should be prepared to evacuate, in case the order is given.
As we often see with a hurricane moving along this sort of path, the worst conditions will be near, north and east of the center of circulation.

Storms moving in this manner along the east coast of the United States tend to become lop-sided with dry air sweeping in west and southwest of the center promoting sunny skies.

This sort of setup could deprive some areas of the interior South of needed rainfall.
That being said, there can still be minimal tropical storm-force winds west of the center along the eastern Florida and Georgia coasts. Tree damage and power outages would be possible.

"Large waves and swells will increase causing dangerous surf and a high potential for rip currents starting on Wednesday and lasting into this weekend," stated AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Tropical Weather Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski as an added danger for these coasts.

The outermost rain bands of Irene could graze the Florida beaches on Thursday into Friday morning, Kottlowski added.

There are other ramifications as the storm is not likely to stop in the Carolinas. It is very possible strong tropical storm or even hurricane conditions will continue to spread up the Atlantic Seaboard.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-08-23T08:37:00.004-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2011

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irene located about 70 miles south-southeast of Grand Turk Island.

Showers and thunderstorms near a large low pressure system located about 750 miles west-northwest of the northernmost Cape Verde Islands have changed little in organization. While the low is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward warmer waters...upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for development. This system has a low chance 20% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

A large low pressure area is centered about 300 miles southeast of The Cape Verde Islands. Although this system is not currently well organized upper-level conditions favor some development during the next several days. This system has a low chance 20% of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves to the west at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Irene

2011-08-22T16:38:00.003-04:00

Hurricane Irene is just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, where it is lashing the islands with intense winds and heavy rain. The long-term forecast for the hurricane is to strengthen it into a Category 3 storm as it approaches Florida on Friday

Tropical Update

2011-08-22T15:35:00.006-04:00

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2011

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irene located inland over Puerto Rico about 15 miles south-southeast of San Juan, and on tropical depression Harvey located about 20 miles east-southeast of Veracruz Mexico.

1. A large and elongated low pressure system located about 300 miles northwest of the northernmost Cape Verde Islands is producing limited shower activity. Development of this low is unlikely during the next couple of days as it remains over cool waters. This system has a low chance, near 0 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Update

2011-08-19T15:00:00.014-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
200 PM EDT FRI Aug 19 2011

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-upgraded tropical storm Harvey located about 155 miles East of Roatan Honduras.

1. A large tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development as the disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles Saturday night and Sunday. This system has a medium chance - 40 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generally westward at 20 mph.

2. A broad low pressure system is gradually becoming better defined about 175 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The low is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and upper-level winds are forecast to remain conducive for some development as the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system has a medium chance – 50 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are possible in the Cape Verde Islands tonight through Saturday.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-08-18T12:41:00.003-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2011

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles south-southwest of Jamaica is becoming better organized. Surface observations across this region also indicate that pressures are falling. If current trends continue a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the system moves generally westward at around 15 mph. This system has a high chance 80 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve unit aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave this afternoon.

2. A large tropical wave located about 875 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Significant development is not likely during the next couple of days. However...environmental conditions could become more conducive for development after that time. This system has a low chance 10 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Current Tropical Traffic

2011-08-18T12:39:00.002-04:00

No systems are a threat to the U.S. mainland for at least the next several days - Tropical wave over western Caribbean could become a depression before moving over Central America Friday or Saturday.

Reported by Weather.com

Don Not Aiming for Florida

2011-07-28T08:45:00.003-04:00

As Tropical Storm Don moves toward Texas, the effect on West Central Florida will be minimal.

Today will be partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Chance of rain diminishes tonight and tomorrow.

A tropical storm watch has been extended as Don moves across the Gulf of Mexico toward southeastern Texas, where it's expected to make landfall Friday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to west of San Luis Pass.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Don's maximum sustained winds early Thursday are near 40 mph (65 kph) with some strengthening possible.

The storm is centered about 635 miles (1,025 kilometers) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and is moving west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph).

Reported by the AG-ER Team

Tropical Weather Outlook

2011-07-27T09:54:00.003-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida

8:00 AM EDT Wed. July 27, 2011

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave near the Yucatan channel continues to become better organized...and radar data from Mexico suggests that a circulation could be forming about 50 miles northeast of Cancun.

If current trends continue a Tropical Depression could develop later today.

Interests in the Northeastern Yucatan peninsula...as well as the central and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.

This system has a high Chance 80 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the Next 48 hours. An air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

USDA Reassures Farmers Affected by Extreme Weather

2011-07-19T09:38:00.004-04:00

USAgNet - 07/18/2011

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reminds farmers and ranchers in states across the country that USDA offers a variety of resources for those affected by recent extreme weather, including floods, drought, fires and tornadoes.

The agency is also urging producers in need or those with questions to contact their local county or state USDA Service Center or Farm Service Agency office for assistance.

In a recent tour of flooding in Iowa and Nebraska, as well as droughts and wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack promised farmers, ranchers and others that USDA would continue to work hard to deliver assistance to those in need.

"America's farmers and rural communities are vitally important to our nation's economy and our values, and my heart goes out to all who are facing hardships because of severe weather and natural disasters," said Vilsack.

In the past two months alone, I have visited with hundreds of Americans who have had to put their lives and livelihoods on hold to deal with floods, tornadoes, drought and wildfires.

Since the beginning, I have instructed USDA staff in the affected states that our main priority must be to work with farmers, ranchers and others to explain the type of aid that is available. We will continue to listen to your concerns and, whenever possible, offer assistance to help you through these difficult times."

Heavy rainfall, snowmelt, and flood conditions have caused crop damage and slowed planting in many states. USDA's Risk Management Agency reminds producers faced with questions on prevented planting, replant, or crop losses to contact their crop insurance company for more information.

Other types of USDA assistance available to those affected by flooding include the Emergency Loan Program and the Emergency Watershed Protection program.

USDA reminds producers affected by drought and fires that resources are available to cover losses, including losses to livestock, crops, orchard trees, and private forests.

Types of USDA assistance to farmers and ranchers may include the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE), federal crop insurance, and the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program.

Through spring and summer, drought and wildfires have affected millions of acres of cropland, forests and grasslands in the United States. Drought conditions stretch from Arizona to the southern Atlantic States.

USDA continues working with state and local officials, as well as our federal partners, to make sure people have the necessary resources to recover from these challenges.

Florida adapting to changing temperatures

2011-07-08T12:57:00.007-04:00

Here in southern Hillsborough County, about as far as you can go on County Road 672, Jay Scott walks amid rows of tomato plants, imagining the future.

In the future, changing weather patterns could make Florida hotter and wetter than today – conditions that could wreck the state's tomato industry.

With that in mind, Scott and his crew at the University of Florida's agricultural research station are reinventing the tomato. They're breeding tomatoes that thrive in higher temperatures and resist the diseases that come with wet conditions.

In the short term, the new tomato varieties could give the state's farmers more time to grow and harvest their crops. In the long term, a more heat-tolerant tomato could become the go-to variety as the climate continues to shift, Scott said.

Weather watchers got a glimpse of the future this month when the federal National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C., released new once-a-decade "normal" temperatures for communities across the United States.

The normals represent the average of daily temperature readings over 30 years. The numbers released this month cover 1981 through 2010, a range that includes some of the hottest years in recorded history.

The new numbers confirm what scientists have said for nearly 25 years: The world is getting warmer. Over the last 50 years, normal temperatures have crept up decade after decade, according to the data center.

The change between 2000 and 2010 ranges from a half-degree during a Tampa summer to two degrees for a Detroit winter. Those are small numbers, but, like revolving interest on a credit card, they add up rapidly.

"It is a big deal," said Anthony Arguez, who compiled the new numbers.

Across Florida, temperature changes can depend on how urban or rural a location is.

At Tampa International Airport, for example, the difference between July's new average temperature (83) and 2000's average (82.7) is three-tenths of a degree. Twenty miles to the east, July in Plant City is four-tenths of a degree hotter now than a decade ago.

Meanwhile, in eastern Pasco County, rural St. Leo's July normal jumped by twice that amount, from 81.9 to 82.6 degrees.

Changes in Tampa Bay communities pale compared those elsewhere, however. In the nation's midsection, states from Michigan to Missouri to Montana have seen their average winter temperatures warm by as much as four degrees.

Warmer winters have drawn armadillos north from their Deep South stomping grounds. They've also let slip hordes of mountain pine beetles, which used to be held in check by long cold winters. As their populations have exploded, they've killed thousands of acres of Rocky Mountain pine forests.

So far, the Southeast has avoided the kind of environmental changes affecting other states. But climatologists and agriculture experts aren't resting easy.
In Florida, they're worried about tomato spot.

The fungus thrives in the Florida's warm, wet summers and quickly destroys tomato plants unlucky enough to become infected. State agricultural experts see a future when summer heat and humidity take hold sooner and last longer, putting at risk the tomato harvest in Ruskin and beyond.

That possibility has Scott and other UF researchers working to engineer a tomato that's immune to spot and will produce fruit at temperatures in excess of 75 degrees, the limit of conventional tomato plants.

While they're at it, the researchers are also trying to breed tomatoes that can survive colder winters as well. That's because the same forces pushing up long-term temperatures also make it harder to forecast the weather from year to year, said David Zierden, the state climatologist.

"It's not necessarily a one- to two-degree change in average temperature where the risk lies," Zierden said. "The risk is going to be in the extremes."

That could mean colder cold snaps, a special concern for citrus and strawberry growers – and, as folks around Plant City learned last year, for the neighbors who share groundwater with them. Round-the-clock pumping to protect strawberry fields depleted local wells and opened sinkholes.

UF researchers are working on technology to protect strawberries from the cold without water. That could mean covering plants with fabric instead of ice – a potentially expensive and labor-intensive change, but one that could pay off if cold snaps continue.

"We don't know if it's going to be enough to pay for the technology over time, but it looks promising," said Craig Stanley, assistant director of the Balm research station.

Florida is likely to become a proving ground for other techniques aimed at helping both farmers and their crops adapt to a changing climate.

Federal agriculture officials this month injected $6.9 million into those efforts. Of that, $1.9 million will go toward helping farmers, who provide much of the East Coast's winter vegetables, prepare their fields and their bank accounts for changing temperatures.

"Farmers like to see a clear picture in their minds," said Clyde Fraisse, an assistant professor of agriculture and bioengineering. "All the uncertainty we're seeing in climate change makes it very hard to gauge what can be done."
Another $5 million federal grant will help develop a strain of corn that can thrive in hotter temperatures.

Why grow Midwestern corn in Florida?

"Florida is kind of the future of the Midwest," said UF corn expert Curtis Hannah. "We can torture-test the corn here."

Hannah will work with researchers in Iowa and Wisconsin to genetically engineer corn that can thrive in temperatures that are already proving to be more than conventional corn can handle. Hannah said it could be more than a decade before heat-tolerant corn comes to market.

In the meantime, the temperatures continue to creep upward.

"From a long-term standpoint, developing tougher plants is a difficult thing to do when you don't know what the temperature's going to be like," Stanley said.

"It takes a long time to develop plant varieties."

By Kevin Wiatrowski, The Tampa Tribune [Source]

Tropical Activity Increasing

2011-07-08T09:13:00.004-04:00

We continue to monitor the large area of disturbed weather covering the northern Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the northern Bahamas.

Surface data shows the surface pressure has dropped slightly during the past 24 hours over the eastern Gulf of Mexico where we see some cyclonic turning in the cloud pattern. A north-south elongated area of low pressure is roughly centered near 26 north, 86 west or roughly 225 miles south of Panama City, Fla. This feature appears to be slowly moving northward.

Extensive showers and thunderstorms across western Cuba and over the Yucatan Channel outlines an upper-level trough.

The weakly organized system will move inland over the Florida Panhandle tonight, after which point the disturbed weather should move over the southeastern U.S. Strong shear over this area created by a higher-level low, mostly around 40,000 feet, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to discourage development. This shear is expected to weaken some later today and tonight. If the surface low were to move slower than expected, then there would be a slight chance for development later tonight into early Saturday before the low moves inland.

A tropical wave moving westward along 66 west is also experiencing strong shear from another high-level low located just northwest of Puerto Rico. We see no important support for development with this tropical wave, but it will bring drenching showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico today.

Another tropical wave is near 55 west, south of 15 north. This feature remains disorganized and should start to affect the Windward Islands today. Long range computer models have backed off on the idea that this system might support development over the southern Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week.

The strong Bermuda high pressure area will nose strongly into the southeastern U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico during next week. This will force any potential development too close to land.

A third tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic near 25 west, bringing some showers to the Cape Verde islands.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

Tropical Development

2011-07-07T17:32:00.005-04:00

Tropical Weather Update

NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami Fl
2:00 pm EDT Thursday July 7, 2011

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Cloudiness and showers extending from Yucatan across the eastern gulf of Mexico.

The Florida peninsula and the Northwestern Bahamas are primarily associated with an elongated area of low pressure.

Although this system has become a little better organized.

During the past several hours upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for further development. There is a low chance 20% Of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is centered about 550 miles east-southeast of the Southern Windward islands.

Although development of this system is not expected Locally heavy rains are possible over northern South America and the Southern Windward Islands during the next day or two. There is a low chance 10% of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Arlene Brings Relief

2011-06-29T13:48:00.002-04:00

A cold front brings scattered thunderstorms to the Southeast and Gulf coasts and Florida today.

Downpours have been ongoing much of the week over Florida, thanks in part to an old frontal boundary and a flow of moisture from the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.

A broken zone of clouds, showers and thunderstorms can be seen extended northeast-southwest, all the way to Arlene over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

While much of Florida has received tenths of inches of rain on a daily basis, some areas have received inches each day for almost a week. This trend will continue into much of the holiday weekend.

In six days, Gainesville has gained 4.50 inches of rain, which is two-thirds of their entire normal rainfall for June. Even in Jacksonville, the ultra lean rainfall until this week has been wiped out by nearly 3.00 inches of rain in six days, about 50 percent of the normal rainfall for the entire month.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Storm Threat Increasing

2011-06-28T16:16:00.004-04:00

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida
2:00 pm EDT Tuesday June 28, 2011

For the North Atlantic Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico a low-level circulation associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has become better defined today but the accompanying shower activity has changed little in organization.

Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development.

The system has the potential to become a tropical depression later today or on Wednesday.

There is a high chance 70% of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.

Florida Rain: Better Late than Never

2011-06-28T13:22:00.009-04:00

The rainy season has been sputtering at best this year over much of Florida, but a change in the weather pattern will allow more generous rainfall in the coming days and weeks.

Blame it on a ridge of high pressure extending westward from the central Atlantic Ocean this spring acting like a barrier to moisture. While the southern counties and a little chunk of the west-central counties got some rainfall starting in late May, the remainder of the state did not, or received very little rain.

The flow of moisture has opened up from both the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico this week.

While there is still some unpredictability of thunderstorms, due to their random nature, the daily mosaic of the tropical downpours will cover most real estate with time.

More and more of the storms will bring downpours and not just lightning strikes. Mainly dry thunderstorms in recent weeks have been compounding the problem, by starting new fires.

Some areas will get rain on a daily basis, while most other areas should get rain every few days.

Throw in a couple of weak tropical systems, known as tropical waves into the mix and there can even be some hefty rainfall hitting multiple areas over the next couple of weeks.

Drought since the winter has led to one of the nastiest wildfire seasons on record in the Sunshine State. As many as several dozen new wildfires were breaking out on a daily basis for a time.

Since the start of the year close to 3,800 separate wildfires have burned 200,000 acres according to the Florida Division of Forestry.

While well short of the fire seasons of 1989, when 645,000 acres burned; 1998, when 507,000 acres burned; and 2001, when 404,000 acres burned, it is already the eleventh worst fire season on record.

The dry weather has led to great recession of water levels in Florida's many freshwater lakes and canals.

Usually during June, the arrival of the tropical downpours known as the rainy season mark an end or a great decline in wildfires.

However, the persistent lack of rain and dry ground has delayed this decline.

Fortunately, it appears that now, finally progressively more downpours are on the way, which should lead to a decline in the number of new fires.

People will still need to use extreme caution outdoors with open fires, cigarettes and power equipment until the landscape moistens up and vegetation greens up.

Recently, two firefighters lost their lives battling blazes in Florida, when shifting winds suddenly caused the Blue Ribbon Fire to overtake their position.

Because of the rainfall deficit that has already occurred and the potential for a less rainy, rainy season this year, the pattern change may not alleviate all of the drought and wildfire problems.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Severe Drought Conditions

2011-06-16T10:35:00.001-04:00

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam says drought conditions are the same as in 1998 when wildfires devastated Florida.

Putnam told Gov. Rick Scott and Florida Cabinet colleagues Thursday that drought covers 93 percent of the state.
In 1998, Flagler County was entirely evacuated and a July 4th auto race in Daytona Beach was postponed because of wildfires.

Florida forestry director Jim Karels says the threat isn't as great now due to lessons learned from 1998.
That includes a stepped up prescribed burn program to clear underbrush that fuels wildfires.

Currently 390 wildfires are burning on 300,000 acres of state and federal lands in Florida.

Putnam said the impending rainy season will make things worse before it helps due to lightning. He said 50,000 lighting strikes were recorded Wednesday night statewide.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat

Sizzling Heat Offers No Relief

2011-06-16T09:27:00.004-04:00

Today, temperatures will remain hot, with another heat advisory for parts of the Panhandle and Big Bend with heat indices there up to 110 degrees. Light and variable morning winds will give way to stronger sea breeze circulations as the day progresses.

This afternoon will bring another round of storms, some of which may be become strong or severe with frequent lightning, strong winds, and a chance for some hail.

Temperatures over the next few days will cool a touch, but remain high. Winds will remain light-moderate, but back to become more southerly. Sea breezes will be a continued feature each day.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible statewide, particularly along sea breeze boundaries, and any old, subtle boundaries from past convection, but coverage does not appear to be as good as it was yesterday.

Months of little or no rainfall, dwindling reservoirs, dry brush and wildfires now have Florida in a state of emergency. Governor Rick Scott signed the declaration on Tuesday.

La Nina, which is a swath of cool water temperatures in the tropical Pacific, was in full bloom over the winter and is believed by some in the meteorological community to be contributing to the lack of rain in not only Florida and the Southeast U.S., but also the south-central U.S.

La Nina has officially been declared over. However, it may still take some time for weather patterns to stabilize, and there are many other forces at work.

While the Florida "rainy season" has begun, it came later than usual this year and has been sputtering thus far at best.

Reported by the AG-ER Team

Severe Storm Possibility

2011-06-16T09:19:00.003-04:00

While large stretches of real estate across the U.S. will bask in ample mid-June sunshine to start today, it will not end a bright conclusion from the Mid-Atlantic to the Atlantic Southeast. Here, dangerous storms will pack a punch, while sizzling heat continues to grip along the U.S. southern-tier.

More storms will also fire up along an eastward marching cold front from the Mid-Atlantic to the Atlantic Southeast, including stretches of the highly populated Interstate 95 corridor from Richmond, Va., to Jacksonville, Fla.

The greatest risk with these powerful storms will be large hail and destructive wind gusts, while there is an outside threat for a brief tornado.

The searing heat will continue unabated along the U.S. southern-tier, even though storms will likely offer some relief for residents during the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms will be strong-to-severe with the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Atlanta, Miami and Orlando, Fla., will all need to be on the lookout for a dangerous storm this afternoon and evening.

Reported by the AG-ER team

NOAA predicts above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

2011-05-20T12:08:00.004-04:00

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. "The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "However we can't count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

Source: NOAA

Severe Weather Possible

2011-05-13T15:16:00.003-04:00

A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin as early as this afternoon in the western Panhandle and begin to slowly overspread the area tonight.

However, the main action should come tomorrow as the front enters the state with good timing for some severe weather and winds around 15 mph across north Florida in the warm sector ahead of the cold front.. By Sunday morning, the front should have made it through all, or at least most of the area, though lingering winds in the 10-15 mph range should remain into early next week.

Tomorrow for South Florida, as the front approaches and the ridge gets broken down more, dispersions will increase. Along with the dispersions, winds will also get a little boost, as will the relative humidity. Rain coverage should begin to increase some, and storms that fire on the sea breeze could become strong to severe. The front itself looks to enter the area Sunday morning, and could give another chance for strong storms to develop again on Sunday.

The front will probably begin to bog down as it moves south and east as it will be weakening. We could again be looking at a front stalling out in South Florida – lingering rain chances from a stalled out boundary would probably continue into early next week, but a drying atmosphere would probably put an end to those, even if the remnants of the front remain into the middle of the week.

Researched by AG-ER Team

Lake Okeechobee drops below 11 feet as drought persists

2011-05-06T10:45:00.004-04:00

The lake today is 10.76 feet above sea level, more than 4 feet below lake levels this time last year. Hitting 10.5 feet would dry out most of the lake’s marshes, which is where the endangered Everglades snail kite hunts for food.

Dropping to 10.5 feet could also interrupt the gravity flows of water to drainage canals south of the lake that sugar cane growers, vegetable farmers and other agricultural operations tap for irrigation.

If the lake nears that point, the district plans to install temporary pumps that would keep lake water flowing to the canals. But the pumps don’t deliver as much as farms say they need. Also, environmentalists are concerned about the pumps further reducing water levels already threatening the snail kite.

To try to boost conservation in response to dry conditions, the district in March moved all of South Florida to twice-a-week landscape watering limits and required golf courses and agriculture south of the lake to cut back water use at least 15 percent. Those emergency restrictions could intensify if conditions worsen. "Water conservation will continue to be critical to see the region through the rest of the dry season and protect water resources for residents and the environment," said Gabe Margasak, spokesman for the South Florida Water Management District.

The water use cutbacks come just a few months after the Army Corps of Engineers was draining lake water out to sea because of flood control concerns. During 2010, the corps drained more than 300 billion gallons of lake water into rivers that lead to the sea. The lake releases are intended to ease the strain on the 70-year-old dike that protects lakeside communities from flooding.

Lake Okeechobee’s water once naturally replenished the Everglades, but decades of draining South Florida to make way for agriculture and development brought people and crops to land that used to naturally hold water. Now, lack of water storage space leaves South Florida dumping stormwater out to sea instead of holding onto it for times of drought.

Aside from the lake releases, the South Florida Water Management District dumps about 1.7 billion gallons of water out of its drainage canals following a typical summer rainy day.

By Andy Reid, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Water Woes Worsen

2011-05-05T09:59:00.007-04:00

This year's dry season tortured South Florida, so much so that officials today said that we need the rainy season to bring a tropical disturbance just to help us get back to normal.

But what the rainy season will bring is unknown.

"We don't know precisely what this wet season will produce," said Susan Sylvester, spokeswoman for the South Florida Water Management District. "But we need this wet season to produce at least normal rainfall."

National Weather Service and water management officials met here this morning to present their predictions of the rainy season and to say where South Florida stands in its dry season. While officials are hopeful for an extremely rainy wet season, they say it just might not be enough.

Robert Molleda, weather service meteorologist, said May through July in the past has been shown to bring "slightly above normal rainfall", but the problem is he doesn't know if that will be enough to rescue the region from its extreme drought.

The rainy season, which tends to start at the end of May, usually accounts for 70 percent of the year's rainfall and we can expect the most rainfall as the past has shown from Memorial Day through the Fourth of July.

"If we end up even near normal that's still not going to be enough for us to totally recover," Molleda said.

In the past few months, the weather phenomenon called La Nina has brought what it is expected to, drier-than-normal conditions.

But, Molleda said, South Florida is going through a transition period now where La Nina is starting to move out and a more neutral system is moving in - making room for more rainy days. He added that the weather service is predicting a wetter-than-normal second half of the wet season with also warmer-than-normal temperatures. Meteorologists are also predicting temperatures to be quite warm.

Although meteorologists are predicting all of this, Molleda said, "we don't have a good feeling for when it is starting."

He said the transition will likely be gradual, but the first indication will be a lot of rainy days with thunderstorms.

From October 1 to April 30, the Palm Beach International Airport has reported a third of the normal amount of rainfall inches, which is the second lowest amount in history.

The water management district has recorded the level of Lake Okeechobee has dropped to 10 feet 8.5 inches - dropping almost a foot in the past month. Although this is problematic for canal levels, the lowest level Lake Okeechobee has dropped to is about eight feet in 2007.

The low lake levels required water managers to impose a two-days-a-week water restriction for the 16-county district in March.

Sylvester said the restriction is not even close to being over yet, and homeowners should be conserving water as much as possible during this "critical" time.

By Alexandra Seltzer, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Tornado-Ravaged South Welcomes Brief Dry Spell

2011-04-28T13:33:00.001-04:00

Parts of the South that were devastated by Wednesday's massive tornado outbreak are welcoming the start of a brief dry spell.

Residents across the South must now begin the painstaking task of sorting through all the debris left behind by Wednesday's violent and deadly tornadoes.

Hardest hit Mississippi, Alabama, southern Tennessee and northern Georgia will be able to start these cleanup operations without any interference from the weather.

High pressure will promote dry weather across these states today since the threat for severe weather has shifted to the Atlantic Seaboard.

High temperatures will be in the 70s this afternoon with reduced humidity and a return of sunshine.

Temperatures will warm slightly on Friday as the sunshine and low humidity continue across the entire South. The only exception will be South Florida, where showers and thunderstorms will persist.

The dry conditions will last into Saturday, but an increase in clouds and humidity over the lower Mississippi Valley will indicate that the return of unwanted stormy weather is just around the corner.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely rattle the lower Ohio and Mississippi valleys again Saturday night into Sunday. The storminess will spread eastward over the rest of the South Monday into Tuesday.

With these thunderstorms, the South may again be faced with more severe weather.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Big Storms to Reach Atlantic Coast Today

2011-04-12T10:55:00.002-04:00

A storm system traveling along an eastward-moving cold front may again trigger thunderstorms.

The extra lift provided by the storm system could be enough to bring yet a new round of severe weather.

Storms moving east with the front farther south to Florida could also be locally gusty.

The storms would bring the risk of damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, large hail and frequent lightning strikes.

It is also possible a few of the storms again generate tornadoes as rapidly rising, warm, humid air is twisted and force to rotate by stronger winds high in the atmosphere.

Fortunately, it appears the storms will be swept out to sea in most areas by mid-afternoon, before they have a chance at getting too nasty.

Not only do the storms pose risks to lives and property on the land, but also along coastal waters. Many of these storms may remain quite strong as they pass over the cool waters of the bays and Atlantic Ocean this afternoon and evening.

Boating interests should be on guard for the storms as they swing quickly from west to east.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist – Accuweather.com

Potential Severe Thunderstorms Tonight

2011-04-11T12:24:00.002-04:00

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning for portions of Northwest Florida, according to NWS Tallahassee.

Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado and/or large hail up to quarter size are also possible.

The main impact from this event will be downed trees and power lines.

The most vulnerable structures would be mobile homes and sheds.

Localized damage could be worse if an isolated tornado develops.

Information collected by AG-ER Team.
Image from Accuweather.com

9 Atlantic hurricanes forecast in busier-than-average season

2011-04-06T16:49:00.003-04:00

The Atlantic basin is facing a busier-than-average hurricane season, in part because of unusually warm water in the ocean, according to a seasonal hurricane forecast released Wednesday morning.

Colorado State University's forecast team, which has been issuing seasonal hurricane predictions since 1984, calls for 16 named tropical storms this year in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The team says nine will become hurricanes, with sustained winds reaching 74 mph. Five are expected to be major hurricanes — Categories 3, 4 or 5 — with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

The average Atlantic hurricane season, going back to 1950, has 10 named storms — six of them hurricanes, and two of those major.

The forecasters, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, say there's a 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coast in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%).

"We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, will contribute to an active season," Klotzbach says.

Insurance companies, emergency managers and the news media use the forecasts from Colorado State to prepare Americans for the season's likely hurricane threat. The team's annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, according to Colorado State.
"We remain — since 1995 — in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so," Gray says.

"Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-05, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent nine of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue."

Colorado State forecasters tend to be rather conservative on their seasonal forecasts: Since 2000, the team has under-forecast the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes five times, over-forecast three times, and been almost right — within two storms — three times, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

In 2010, the team predicted 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. Nineteen named storms actually formed, including 12 hurricanes.

Also last week, the private forecasting firm AccuWeather predicted 15 tropical storms would form this year, of which eight will be hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its 2011 hurricane forecast in May.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The first named storm in the Atlantic will be called Arlene, followed by Bret and Cindy.

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Possible Severe Thunderstorms Tonight

2011-04-04T16:33:00.005-04:00

Severe thunderstorms will continue to plow along a cold front crashing into warm and humid air this evening.

Severe thunderstorms, with possible tornadoes caused extensive damage in the Hopkinsville, KY., area during the midday hours Monday.

During the middle of the afternoon, tornadoes had been spotted over Middle Tennessee, and 60-mph wind gusts occurred in the Muscle Shoals, Ala. area. This severe weather outbreak includes risks of large hail, damaging downburst wind gusts, flash and urban flooding, frequent lightning strikes and a few tornadoes.

At the local level, storms can produce wind gusts over 60 mph, golf ball-sized hail or larger and over an inch of rain in less than 1 hour. In some cases, tornadoes could be shrouded in rain or can occur after dark.

Overnight, the powerful thunderstorms will lose some intensity but may still cause damaging wind gusts and blinding, torrential downpours as they cross the Appalachians and the Interstate 81 corridor.

During the day Tuesday, the long line of thunderstorms will extend along much of the Interstate 95 corridor from New England to Florida. The greatest risk of damaging weather conditions will stretch from the southern part of the Delmarva to central Florida.

Changes in atmospheric conditions should take the edge off the strongest storms by Tuesday. However, there will continue to be an elevated risk of damaging wind gusts and blinding downpours that can lead to flash urban flooding.

Although the risk is slight, there could be a couple of tornadoes along the 1,500-mile-long stretch of Atlantic Seaboard real estate, especially across the southern part of this zone. Remember one of the most deadly aspects of thunderstorms is lightning. Move indoors or stay in your vehicle as storms approach.

If you can hear thunder, you are at risk for being hit by lightning. Open air structures and trees do not provide adequate protection from a lightning strike.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be Active

2011-03-31T13:22:00.006-04:00

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Paul Pastelok, are predicting an active season for 2011 with more impact on the U.S. coastline than last year.

The team is forecasting a total of 15 named tropical storms, eight of which will attain hurricane status and three of which will attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).

In a normal year, there are 10 tropical storms, six of which become hurricanes and two of which become major hurricanes, or attain winds that exceed 110 mph. 2010's historic season had a total of 19 named storms and ranks as the third most active season on record, but there was little impact on the United States coastline. Twelve of these storms became hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes.

Two names from the 2010 season were retired on March 16. "It looks like we're going to have more impact on the mainland of the U.S. coming up this year compared to last year," Pastelok said. "We had a lot of storms last year, but not a lot of impact [on the U.S.]." In order to project the number of storms and impacts, the team looks at past years that have similar weather variables and patterns that closely resemble the most recent fall, winter and early spring months.

Factors for this Season
There are a number of physical drivers that have the team concerned for this upcoming hurricane season.

These include: The orientation and position of the Azores and Bermuda high-pressure areas in the Atlantic The Azores high is one of the bigger influences on the movement of tropical cyclones.

High pressure systems alter the direction of a storm by steering the storm, a low pressure system, around it. This is one way forecasters can predict the track of a hurricane. "The forecast position and strength of the Azores or Bermuda high is always a challenging forecast," Pastelok said. "An unexpected change could greatly alter where both early season and mid season storms track." AccuWeather.com Expert Tropical Forecaster Dan Kottlowski added, "We do see some changes in the overall pattern across the Atlantic." Kottlowski continued, "The water temps are not nearly as warm as they were last year, and also the upper air pattern looks slightly different... than last year, so that could have an impact as to where that subtropical high, that big high pressure area that helps guide tropical storms, sets up." "It may weaken or actually reposition itself a little bit to the northeast as we get later in the season, which would allow more of a storm track closer to Florida and also up the East Coast," Kottlowski concluded.

The future state of the ongoing La Niña La Niña is a phenomenon that occurs when the surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. La Niña results in low wind shear, especially in the main tropical development area in the Atlantic. Shear refers to strong winds that are high in the atmosphere. Wind shear is a "hurricane killer," in that it can hinder storm development as well as break up existing storms. "Currently, right now we still are in a La Niña scenario, but it is starting to weaken," Pastelok said. "The signal is starting to show some signs of going neutral. That could have an impact on the westerly wind component down in the tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.

Stronger westerlies would prohibit major storms or a lot of storms, so it is a critical factor." The frequency and amount of dust that accompanies disturbances moving off the African coast The presence of dust indicates dry air, which can hinder tropical development in the eastern Atlantic. "Current projections on the weather pattern over Africa for this coming tropical season suggests there will be episodes of dust affecting development, but no more than normal," Pastelok said. A phenomenon known as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) AMO refers to the sea surface temperature in the northern Atlantic, and the temperature fluctuates from colder than average to warmer than average every few decades.

Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the warm phase, and warm water is "hurricane fuel," in that it supports the development of tropical systems. "We continue to observe the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," said Paul Pastelok. "This will help to maintain warmer-than-normal water temperatures across most of the Atlantic Basin." This Season's Concern Areas As with most Atlantic hurricane seasons, the areas where storms are most likely to make landfall shift as the season progresses. This year, the early season threat area will be the western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean. Within this zone, the higher concern for landfalls will be along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

As for the mid-to-late season zones, the eastern Gulf and Caribbean will be the focus. The higher concern areas will be the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas. "What we see is there is a clustering of storm impacts over the southeastern US, and that's the reason why we earmarked this as a concern area," said Kottlowski.

Another mid-to-late season concern for landfalls will be northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. "We feel that this season, there will be a higher potential for impacts across the southern part of the Basin into the Gulf of Mexico during the first part of the season," Pastelok stated. "This higher potential for impacts shift farther north into the southeast U.S. during the latter half of the season."

Hurricane season officially begins June 1and ends Nov. 30. For all the latest tropical information, be sure to check the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date videos, information and storm tracks.

By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Severe Weather Alert

2011-03-30T08:33:00.004-04:00

Severe thunderstorms will push through North Florida. The strongest storms may contain damaging wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado. Gulf coast counties are under a Tornado Watch.

These pulses of enhanced rain and thunderstorm storms will persist in parts of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday night. Far South Florida may see some showers linger into early Friday.

Severe Weather Alerts

Tornado Watch for the following counties: Bay Calhoun Coastal Waters From Apalachicola to Destin Fl Out 20 Nm Escambia Franklin Gulf Holmes Jackson Liberty Okaloosa Santa Rosa Walton Washington

Flood Watch for: Coastal Escambia Coastal Okaloosa Coastal Santa Rosa Inland Escambia Inland Okaloosa Inland Santa Rosa

Dense Fog Advisory for: Far South Miami-dade Glades Hendry Inland Broward Inland Collier Inland Miami-dade Inland Palm Beach Mainland Monroe Metro Broward Metro Palm Beach Metropolitan Miami Dade

Needed Rain for Drought-Stricken Florida

2011-03-28T11:06:00.005-04:00

Parts of Florida have finally seen something over the weekend that has been absent for a couple of weeks--rain, and more needed wet weather is on the horizon.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms returned to the Florida Panhandle for the first time in over two weeks on Saturday.

In those two weeks, the drought situation has worsened across Florida as the state experienced increase in wildfire activity.

The United States Drought Monitor reported that the percentage of Florida enduring extreme drought conditions rose from 15 to 21 in one week (from March 15 to March 22).

More welcome rain will grace the Florida Panhandle through Monday, but is coming at a price. Some of the thunderstorms have and will continue to turn severe, as damage leftover from weekend storms indicate.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are slated to target northern and central Florida on Monday. This includes Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville and Tallahassee.

It is not out of the question that a localized number of Monday's thunderstorms produce strong, gusty winds and some large hail.

On the heels of Monday's activity, Florida (at least down to central areas) will welcome more wet weather at midweek.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist from Accuweather.com

Possibility For Severe Storms

2011-03-25T15:48:00.011-04:00

Total rain fall in inches from Friday night through Sunday evening.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and again Sunday for parts N.FL.

Forecasts are anticipating a slight risk of severe thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday for mainly the northern parts of the region.

The weather pattern will become more active beginning this weekend and continuing into next week. This will combine with an influx of moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico to increase the chances of isolated thunderstorms over the weekend. If storms can form, the amount of wind shear suggests they could become severe.

Showers and a few severe thunderstorms are expected to Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon along a slow moving surface front.

The primary threats from these severe storms will be isolated large hail, damaging winds and possibly.

The potential for thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms will cover a larger area on Sunday as the front settles farther south.

Total rainfall from these storms will be fairly light as storms remain isolated and fast moving.

For additional threat information, visit our graphical hazardous weather outlook at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=ghwo_lightning

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this storm’s progress.

South Fla. District Imposes Water Rules

2011-03-23T11:28:00.006-04:00

Officials declared a water shortage Tuesday for a broad swath of central and southern Florida, issuing more stringent restrictions to cope with one of the driest winters on record.

The South Florida Water Management District ordered residents throughout its 16-county area of oversight to water lawns no more than twice a week, beginning Saturday. The district includes a portion of southern and eastern Polk County.

It affects 7.7 million people in an area that stretches from Orlando to the Florida Keys.

"We're expecting the dry season to continue being as dry as it has been," said Pete Kwiatkowski, the management district's incident commander on the water shortage. "We're trying to extend the water supplies that we do have."

The move comes after an exceptionally dry few months in South Florida. The period from October through February ranked as the driest such time frame in 80 years, according to the water management district. Rainfall for the season was 7.72 inches below average as of Tuesday.

"This is one of the driest dry seasons we've had," said Susan Sylvester, the district's director of operations control.

Similar conditions have been experienced throughout Florida. The St. Johns Water Management District, which covers a large portion of the Atlantic coastline from Indian River to the Georgia border, also has twice-a-week watering restrictions. So does the Southwest Florida Water Management District, though that restriction is applied year-round in that region, which includes most of Polk.

The new restrictions issued by the South Florida district also curb usage by farms, golf courses, nurseries and other businesses.

Matt Sedensky - AP

Published: Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 10:44 p.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 10:44 p.m.

Source URL:
http://www.theledger.com/article/20110322/NEWS/110329856/-1/entertainment?Title=-No-heading-

Water restrictions this coming Saturday, March 26, 2011. Here are the links to the restrictions for both Landscapes and Commercial Ag.

Commercial Ag and Nursery
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/jtf_wr_smiamidade.pdf

Landscape
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/jtf_wr_landscape.pdf

Climate change, how does agriculture adapt?

2011-03-18T12:34:00.000-04:00

Everybody knows that some kind of climate change is occuring. The question is, can agriculture use climate change to its advantage?

Studies show that some crops, like cotton, can handle higher temperatures more efficiently, while others, like corn and grain sorghum, are very responsive to elevated levels of carbon dioxide.

Some physiologists have attributed the increase in cotton yields over the past 20 years to the slow, upward trend in carbon dioxide.

http://deltafarmpress.com/government/climate-change-how-does-agriculture-adapt?cid=nl_dfpd

Spring Warmth This Week

2011-03-15T14:22:00.001-04:00

As high pressure builds in the Southeast later this week, it will help to direct a surge of warm air into many areas east of the Mississippi later this week.

The potential is there for some of the warmest weather since last fall for portions of the South, Thursday into Saturday.

High pressure taking up residence along the southern Atlantic coast during the second half of the week will turn into a giant pump allowing warmth to build and be thrown northward.

In the South, temperatures will surge well into the 80s.

While temperatures will be well above normal with the pattern, most records will stay intact.

In the South, much less of a wind is forecast Friday through the weekend, closer to the center of the high pressure system.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist - Accuweather.com

Powerful Thunderstorms Hit the Gulf Coast

2011-03-10T09:22:00.013-05:00

Violent thunderstorms struck cities and towns along the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Today, cities and towns primarily eastward of the I-95 corridor from southeastern Virginia to the coast of South Carolina could be pounded by dangerous thunderstorms.

These storms will be capable of producing wind gusts past 40 mph as well as hail. The howling winds could down trees and power lines and damage buildings.

Isolated tornadoes will also be possible in the strongest thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, 3.83 inches of rain doused New Orleans, La., in just 61 minutes, with 1.01 inches of this falling in a mere eight minutes.

While rainfall totals from today's storms may not be as extreme, an inch or two of rain in a matter of hours could still trigger major flooding headaches.

Flash flood waters could submerge area roadways and even surge into homes and businesses. Poor drainage and low-lying areas will be especially at risk for flooding problems.

Motorists are reminded to never attempt to drive through flooded streets, as it doesn't take much flowing water to sweep a vehicle away. Water on roadways could also hide washed out portions of pavement.

On the other hand, the wet weather in these areas will aid in relieving the recent rainfall deficits that many locations are currently experiencing.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a large portion of the Southeast is in the grips of a moderate drought.

By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist – Accuweather.com

Current Conditions

2011-03-10T09:16:00.003-05:00

A cold front brings heavy rain and severe thunderstorms to the Florida peninsula.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in southern Florida

Damaging winds are most likely.

The heavy rain could cause some localized flooding

Brief forecast brought to you by the AG-ER Team - Image obtained from Weather.com

Tornado Watch

2011-03-09T11:22:00.004-05:00

Tornado Watch Is In Effect Until 5:00 PM Est.

Florida Counties Included: Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Wakulla, Walton, Washington

Brought to by the AG-ER Team

Possible Florida Fire Relief Coming Thursday

2011-03-08T09:40:00.004-05:00

Dozens of brush fires continue to burn this week across Florida, and the current pattern will offer little relief for the thousands of scorched acres for the next few days.

"The combination of breezy conditions at times, low humidity, dry brush and a lack of rainfall have and will continue to make conditions favorable for the spread of wildfires in much of the Sunshine State," said AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski."

Rain along the Florida Panhandle has eased the fire danger in that area over the weekend, but the rain did not reach the peninsula.

Notable fires in the state include the Iron Horse fire that burned nearly 17,000 acres in parts of Brevard and Volusia counties.

Although the fire was completely contained over the weekend, the remaining smoke has closed portions of Interstate 95 along the coastline into Monday. US Highway 1 is also threatened by smoke.

According to 13 News in Central Florida, the smoke, along with morning fog, created dangerous low visibility during early morning hours on Monday.

A five-vehicle crash, including two semis, occurred along a stretch of I-95, forcing the closure of a section of highway that has since reopened.

This is considered the dry season in Florida, but many cities across the Florida Peninsula have received less than a quarter of their normal rainfall over the past several weeks.

Orlando has recorded only 11 percent normal rainfall in February.

Average temperatures during the month were 3.5 degrees above normal and have been above normal every day since Feb. 16.

An easterly flow will bring higher dew points to the state starting Tuesday. A cold front sweeping across the southern United States will provide the possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the peninsula on Thursday.

Any amount of rain and higher humidity levels would assist firefighting efforts, perhaps allowing crews to gain an upper hand.

While brush burning to clear ranches of debris was still being allowed in a few areas, some communities have initiated burning bans as a safeguard.

People are asked to be extremely careful when cooking and using power equipment outdoors. Anything that can produce a spark is a potential hazard in these very dry conditions. Do not toss burning cigarettes out of your vehicle.

Do not park your vehicle in grassy areas, as the hot exhaust pipe from the vehicle can be enough to set the brush on fire.

By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed to the content of this story.

Firefight a "Challenge" in Florida

2011-03-03T10:07:00.003-05:00

MIMS, Fla. (AP) -- Florida's first significant wildfire of the year is threatening to keep dozens of firefighters busy for several more days and force more highway closures, the state agriculture commissioner said Wednesday.

A stretch of interstate highway along Florida's Atlantic coast was closed for more than an hour Wednesday because of the fire. Interstate 95 was first closed hours after the fire began Monday and into the next morning.

So far, the fire has burned about 25 square miles and destroyed one mobile home, several outbuildings and a few camp structures. The cause is still under investigation.

"With a fire that large and burning that hot, it says a lot about these crews that the number of structures has been very minimal that have been damaged, and that there's not been serious injury," said Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who flew over the affected area in a helicopter Wednesday.

"Protecting people and structures is our No. 1 priority. But with winds pushing it back to the west, that's gonna be a challenge for the next couple of days."

More than 100 firefighters from four counties are fighting the blaze, which Putnam said was 25 percent contained. Their work was helped by rain Tuesday.

One firefighter was treated for burns Tuesday at Orlando Regional Medical Center. A phone message left requesting an update on his condition was not immediately returned.

Winds were gusting at 10 mph Wednesday, and are expected to increase to 20 mph Thursday.

Smoke carried by the winds covered about 20 miles of I-95, forcing its temporary closure Wednesday. Putnam said intermittent closures of the interstate are expected for the rest of the week.

"The wind has been a real aggravating factor and we only expect that to continue," he said.

The blaze is about 25 miles north of the Kennedy Space Center, but NASA has said operations there are not affected.

Parts of central and South Florida have seen their driest few months in nearly 80 years, setting the stage for a very active fire season.

"It's very early in the season to have a fire of this size and magnitude," Putnam said. "With the amount of freezes earlier in the winter that killed so much plant material, now we have dry fuel on the ground...It won't take much to set it off and create a big tinderbox across the state. So we are urging caution."

Current Conditions

2011-03-01T14:38:00.002-05:00

A cold front drags through central and southern Florida producing scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

No severe thunderstorms are expected, but stronger storms could produce briefly gusty winds and heavy downpours.

The remainder of the region enjoys a dry and mostly sunny day today.

High temperatures range from the middle 50s to middle 60s in the Southeast to the lower and middle 80s in southern Florida.

Source: Weather.com

Severe storms in Mid-Atlantic and Southeast

2011-02-28T15:11:00.004-05:00

Strong late-winter storm fueled by very warm temperatures and high humidity for late February brings the threat of severe thunderstorms to Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, North Florida, the Carolinas, eastern West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, south-central and southeast Pennsylvania, Delaware and south Jersey.

Damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat, but hail and a few tornadoes are also likely.

The severe thunderstorms will rapidly shift eastward across the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast this afternoon and evening and the severe threat will come to an end overnight as the thunderstorms exit into the Atlantic.

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Feb. 28, 2011 12:00 pm ET

La Niña may bring warm late winter to Southeast

2011-02-24T12:45:00.004-05:00

After interference from an unexpected climate event, La Niña is expected to re-establish her influence over weather patterns in the Southeast and bring warm and dry weather to the region for the rest of the winter, according to officials at the Florida Climate Center at The Florida State University.

So far, the Southeast has experienced an extremely cold winter, a surprise since La Niña usually brings warm temperatures to the Sunshine State and its neighbors. So, what happened?

“There is another ocean-driven actress in the house called NAO — The North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Arctic Oscillation,” said James O’Brien, emeritus Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor and former state climatologist of Florida. NAO is an indicator of the jet stream pattern over the Eastern United States and the North Atlantic.

“The ocean between Canada and Greenland was very cold, creating a blocking high pressure system,” O’Brien said. “As a result, the Atlantic winter storms stayed further south over the Gulf Stream extension and got very strong. Their backside pulled very cold air down from Canada all the way to Florida.”

While El Niño and La Niña can be predicted six months in advance, NAO changes are not yet predictable on seasonal time scales, which poses problems for seasonal forecasts in general and winter temperatures in particular, according to David Zierden, state climatologist of Florida and climate scientist at the Florida Climate Center. Researchers are actively working on models that may eventually better predict the NAO shifts.

Seeing a fast transition from an El Niño phase to La Niña in July 2010, the Climate Center and others last fall predicted dry weather and warm temperatures this winter. El Niño refers to a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean along the equator from the coast of South America to the central Pacific that generally brings cooler and wetter winter and springs to the southeastern United States. La Ninã is the opposite phase caused by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and normally brings drier and warmer winter and springs to the Southeast.

Without knowing about the NAO, climatologists were only half right: While Florida is experiencing dry conditions, the statewide temperature for December in Florida was more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit below the 20th century average, according to Clyde Fraisse, climate extension specialist with the University of Florida and a key partner in the Florida Climate Center’s work with the Southeast Climate Consortium.

The NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has determined that December 2010 was the coldest December on record for Florida, and several cities within the state, including Miami, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Daytona, Orlando, Tampa and Tallahassee, experienced record cold temperatures in December.

But there is good news on the way. Medium-range weather prediction models are forecasting a break from this negative NOA pattern, which would allow the strong La Niña to re-establish its influence over the weather patterns in the Southeast.

“Warmer and continued dry weather is still the best forecast for the remainder of the winter and the transition to spring in the Southeast,” O’Brien said.

URL Source: http://www.fsu.com/Featured-Stories/Climatologists-La-Nina-may-bring-warm-late-winter-to-Southeast

Wild Spring Ahead with Late-Season Snow, Tornadoes

2011-02-17T10:42:00.003-05:00

While the weather has finally calmed down across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country this week, a look at the longer range suggests that many residents may be in for a wild spring.

Wintry events that last into April across the northern tier of the nation and an above-normal severe weather season farther south are some of the main highlights in AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi's outlook for the next few months.

To sum it up, Bastardi said, "This spring should be a wilder one than last year."

Winter May Keep Delivering Punches into April.

To read the complete article, click on the link below.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45852/wild-spring-ahead-with-latesea.asp

Active Severe Weather Season Predicted

The other major concern in the longer range is the potential for the severe weather season this spring to be more active than normal.

This means there could be more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes than average.

Severe weather season usually starts ramping up across the Gulf Coast states late February into March.

The peak in tornado season typically doesn't happen until April or May for much of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast.

Some AccuWeather.com meteorologists have also pointed out that the severe weather season may get off to a late start this year, due to the fact that sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are below normal.

Winter is Generally Over for the South

Above-normal warmth has replaced the extreme cold that gripped the South a good part of December and January.

Overall, AccuWeather.com long-range forecasters think temperatures will average out above normal in the coming months across the region.

Pastelok said, "The one key [with the long-range forecast] is the South, where I think the extremes of cold are gone." However, Bastardi is still warning that the threat of one more prolonged period of cold late in the season is a concern into April.

He says this may be a "mini version" of the extreme cold that gripped Texas the first two weeks of February.

By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist – Accuweather.com

Heat, Wind Increase Southern Fire Risk

2011-02-15T11:15:00.002-05:00

The unseasonable warmth invading much of the eastern United States may be welcome to many, but to parts of the South, the heat is carrying a brush fire risk.

Red flag warnings were in effect for parts of Florida on Tuesday.

Red flag warnings indicate fire weather conditions, including low humidity, warm temperatures and breezy conditions.

Conditions over much of the Southeastern states range from abnormally dry to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Combine this with ongoing weather conditions and brush that has dried out over the winter months and you have prime brush fire conditions.

The biggest concern for brush fires will be the extremely dry air mass over the region the high pressure is bringing.

"An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will prevent more humid air from entering the South until at least midweek," said AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines.

As for Florida, Kines said an easterly flow will bring more humid air to the peninsula from the Atlantic Ocean, since high pressure systems rotate clockwise.

Although the high temperatures will continue through the week, the dry air mass will move out of the region as the week ends, lessening the dry air aspect of the fire risk.

However, dry brush will remain, temperatures will rise and winds will pick up again later in the week.

People are urged not to toss burning cigarettes out of their cars and to use caution with grills and outdoor power equipment that may throw sparks or ignite brush via hot exhaust.

Outdoor burning may be banned in some communities as a result of the tinder dry conditions.

By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed to the content of this story.

Florida Weather Forecast

2011-02-11T09:43:00.002-05:00

Some rain is also possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula today and tonight.

Low’s in the 30s in Northern Florida, High’s in the Upper 70s in parts of South Florida.

Cold Temps Persist

2011-02-11T09:37:00.001-05:00

The winter storm that buried the southern Plains with heavy snow Tuesday into Wednesday will finally depart the Southeast.

The travel hazards across the South will diminish this afternoon as the snow pushes offshore and temperatures climb above freezing.

Information extracted from Accuweather.com